The confrontation between Israel and Iran, the climax of the conflict in the Middle East, has been brewing for decades. It has expanded the battlefield, opening a Pandora’s box that cannot be closed. The Iranian question is reshaping the region, according to Ifri specialist Dorothée Schmid at the 18th edition of the World Policy Conference in Chantilly.
For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia and Vladimir Putin were notably absent from the conference organized each year by Thierry de Montbrial, the president of the French Institute of International Relations. They seem to have been drowned out by the waves of turmoil engulfing the Middle East since the start of the Israeli-American operation against one of the most repressive and dangerous regimes on the planet. Former Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy comments on the chaos in the region brought about by the transformation of the world.
Political leaders and experts from around the world gathered in Chantilly agree that, despite the informational fog preventing analysts from fully understanding the crisis, the war in Iran, regardless of its outcome, has profoundly changed the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz for the first time, attacks on non-belligerent Gulf states, and the shift in the nature of threats towards drones and light equipment are among the key shifts analyzed.
As Israeli-American bombings weakened Iran’s military infrastructure, the regime changed its deterrence strategy focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and drones. Iranian attacks on Gulf states have caused lasting wounds, especially in countries that were moving cautiously toward reconciliation with Iran, illustrating the complexities of the situation in the region.
“The Iran’s actions in the Gulf countries are unacceptable. But my country wants to have good relations with both Iran and Israel,” Nabil Fahmy emphasizes.
The Middle East remains on edge, uncertain of what the future holds. Various perspectives on Israel’s strategic position, including concerns and potential gains from the conflict with Iran, highlight the complexity of the situation.
While negotiations between Americans and Iranians continue, the Iranian threat looms, with uncertainties about the future of the regime. The repercussions of events in the Middle East may have far-reaching consequences globally, with different scenarios being imagined for the aftermath of the conflict.
“We are at a pivotal moment. If the war continues, it will weigh on the entire world,” warns Jihad Azour, the IMF official.
In the midst of shifting dynamics, the economist Jihad Azour highlights the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the situation in the Middle East and its global implications.
