Ormuz Crisis: Chinas Energy Achilles Heel

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz exposes China’s energy dependency and geopolitical vulnerability in the face of American dominance.

The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a direct consequence of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, serves as a powerful indicator of China’s strategic fragilities. For Beijing, where nearly a third of oil imports pass through this maritime chokepoint, the impact goes beyond the economic dimension to become a major geopolitical test in its increasing rivalry with the United States. The current crisis sheds light on the structural dependence of an economic superpower on a security order that it does not control.

Strait of Hormuz: China’s Achilles’ heel

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the few spaces where China’s energy needs collide head-on with American military power. Washington, with the support of its Gulf allies, ensures most of the maritime security in this critical region for the global economy. This situation puts Beijing in an uncomfortable position: its prosperity depends on maritime routes it does not control, suppliers located in an area heavily influenced by the U.S., and an energy corridor exposed to regional upheavals.

The current crisis starkly reminds the Chinese government that its rise to power is conditioned by external factors. The vulnerability is twofold: energy-wise, with the risk of supply disruptions or uncontrollable price spikes, and geopolitically, by demonstrating its dependence on stability guaranteed by its main strategic rival.

Diversification and corridors: Beijing’s quest for autonomy

Aware of this fragility, Beijing has been actively seeking to cushion potential shocks for several years. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) had already identified energy security as an absolute national priority. The Hormuz crisis only accelerates three fundamental dynamics already underway.

The first is supplier diversification, turning more towards Russia, several countries in Africa, and Latin America to reduce dependence on the Gulf. The second is the development of overland corridors, especially through Central Asia as part of the new silk roads, to bypass maritime chokepoints. Lastly, China has significantly bolstered its strategic oil reserves, allowing it to temporarily mitigate the crisis impact. However, while these solutions are relevant, they do not eliminate China’s structural dependence on Middle Eastern oil in the medium term.

A dual influence game in the Middle East

The conflict in the region highlights a central paradox in Sino-American rivalry. While the U.S. remains the dominant military power, capable of projecting force and securing maritime routes, China has become, over the years, the primary economic partner of almost all countries in the region.

Beijing finds itself exposed to dynamics it does not control: American military decisions, dynamic political instability, and physical risks affecting energy flows. In response, Chinese diplomacy strives to position itself as a stabilizing actor and mediator. However, its political and security influence still remains limited compared to the deep and historical strategic foothold of the United States.

The Global South, a diplomatic ally but not a strategic solution

To counterbalance American pressure, China actively strengthens its partnerships with countries in the “Global South” in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia. These alliances serve a triple purpose: securing raw material supplies outside the Middle East, expanding diplomatic influence in an increasingly fragmented world, and building a support network against Washington.

However, while these partnerships undoubtedly enhance China’s weight on the international stage, they do not offset the centrality of the Gulf in its energy equation. The Global South appears more as an influence multiplier than a true short-term strategic substitute.

A structural dilemma: economic power versus geopolitical dependency

Despite this external shock, the Chinese economy demonstrates notable resilience, as evidenced by its 5% growth in the first quarter of 2026. Nevertheless, the Hormuz crisis reveals the profound dilemma facing Beijing: China aspires to become a global power, but it remains dependent on a maritime and security order largely dominated by the United States.

This structural contradiction lies at the heart of Sino-American rivalry. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz confirms that while China moves towards greater autonomy, it still, for now, remains vulnerable to the turbulence of a world order in full re-composition, an order that Beijing does not yet have the capacity to shape in its image.

Bernard BERTUCCO VAN DAMME via Press Agence.