Attacks on oil tankers, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and a surge in prices: Iran appears to have chosen economic warfare against Israel and the United States. A strategy aimed at provoking a global energy crisis, the effectiveness and duration of which remain uncertain.
The International Energy Agency is citing the most significant disruption to oil supply in history. Behind this is an Iranian strategy that is gradually turning the conflict into an economic war. In recent days, several oil tankers have been targeted and energy infrastructure has been struck in the Gulf. At the same time, Iranian authorities are issuing warnings. “Prepare to see the oil barrel reach $200!” declared the Iranian military command.
Energy as a strategic lever
For Tehran, energy has become a tool of pressure in the conflict. A strategy driven by the military imbalance with its adversaries. Didier Leroy, a researcher at the Royal Higher Institute of Defense, summarizes the Iranian logic.
“The military balance is very clear and it is not in Tehran’s favor. So, the only way, the only hope in any case, to stop the Israeli-American campaign is to increase pressure from Washington and Tel Aviv allies on them. That’s why they are hitting the wallet,” he explained in an interview.
In other words, by targeting global energy flows, Iran hopes to push the economic partners of the United States and Israel to exert pressure on them.
The Strait of Hormuz at the heart of the strategy
At the center of this economic battle is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key points of global oil trade. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily, with nearly 80% destined for Asia. This traffic is now disrupted by threats and attacks attributed to Iran.
“Iran has no choice.”
According to Samuel Furfari, a professor of energy geopolitics, the desired effect of the strategy mainly relies on fear.
$100 per barrel
The effects are being felt in the markets. Around 3,000 ships are currently immobilized, while Gulf producers have reduced their production by at least 10 million barrels per day. As a direct consequence, the price of oil has now surpassed $100 per barrel.
To calm the markets, 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency announced the release of 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves on Wednesday. However, this measure has not yet succeeded in lowering prices.
A war of attrition with uncertain consequences
The central question remains: how long can this strategy last? According to Didier Leroy, Iran could continue down this path due to lack of alternatives. “Iran has no choice, so it will continue this forward movement hoping that over time, the balance between costs and benefits will increasingly favor Washington and Tel Aviv. It’s not a done deal, no one knows exactly how long it can last,” he said.
The Revolutionary Guards claim to be ready to wage a war of attrition, even if it means destabilizing the global economy. On the other hand, Donald Trump remains firm: for Washington, the primary objective is to halt Iran’s nuclear program, regardless of the economic consequences.
