The closure of the Strait of Hormuz acts as a brutal revealer of the structural fragilities of the global energy system. According to oil markets economist Julien Mathonnier, the idea of a total disengagement from the Middle East is more of a myth than a realistic short-term perspective. “The question is not whether we can reduce dependence, but whether we can eliminate it. And the answer is no,” he summarizes.
The Gulf region holds a crucial part of the world’s reserves, making any complete substitution extremely costly and technically complex. Mathonnier estimates that establishing an alternative energy architecture would require massive investments, potentially exceeding several billion dollars, to rebuild global-scale infrastructures.
Vulnerability lies not so much in the resource itself as in its chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Red Sea are strategic bottlenecks. Their blockage is enough to reshape global energy flows. In this context, alternative corridor projects – whether by rail, ports, or pipelines – aim not to replace the Gulf, but to diversify supply routes.
These initiatives, particularly led by Turkey or within the framework of the India-Middle East-Europe corridor, respond to a logic of resilience. However, their economic viability depends on several factors rarely combined in the region: massive investments, time, and above all, lasting political stability.
Mathonnier highlights that these corridors could first benefit non-oil trade, as hydrocarbon volumes require much larger logistical capacities. But in the long term, they could form a basis for expanded energy infrastructure.
In this restructuring, Israel may not necessarily be marginalized. Between its port ambitions and competing regional dynamics, the state could instead be part of this diversification trend. One thing is certain: given the increase in crises, these projects should quickly return to the heart of global energy strategies.
