War in the Middle East: There is a will on both sides to stop the fighting and begin negotiations

Published on April 17, 2026 at 10:41 pm, Updated on April 17, 2026 at 10:42 pm

Reading time: 4 minutes – Video: 20 minutes

Gilles Kepel, a specialist in the Arab world, was a guest on “Tout est politique” on Friday, April 17. The specialist answered Myriam Encaoua’s questions about the possibility of a future peace agreement between Iran and the United States.

This text corresponds to a transcription of part of the above interview. Click on the video to watch the full interview.

Myriam Encaoua: Is the purchasing power of Americans Donald Trump’s Achilles’ heel, more than anything else?

Gilles Kepel: Yes, this explains what is currently happening in the Iran war, where we are moving, at least for now, from military confrontation to focusing on economic issues.

Already, but we must remain very cautious, there has been a significant drop in the price of oil barrels, which has lost six dollars. How do you view this day, Gilles Kepel? Because it is very eventful on the part of the White House. Tonight, the American president tells AFP that a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran is close. Should we believe him?

He has already said it many times. When you lie a lot, you don’t believe it anymore. But why not? Because indeed, there has been a cessation of military activities. Indeed, for the past two days, Iran itself has not attacked. It was proxies from Iraq, Iraqi militias, who sent some missiles and drones to Kuwait and Bahrain. The United Arab Emirates were not affected, nor was Saudi Arabia. And in Lebanon, we now have a form of active non-belligerence. It is clear that on both sides, there is a willingness, for now, to stop the arms in order to enter another type of negotiation, which is an economic and political negotiation.

Including the Iranians? Do you think they are now willing to enter this new phase?

So, it is very difficult to say without having the numbers at hand and everything about Iran is an opaque continent for information. But the calculation we can make is that Iran is in an economically catastrophic situation. It was already the case before. There have been massive infrastructural destruction and the counter-blockade, that of the Americans, which pushed back about ten ships loaded with Iranian fuel, is something that works.

Tactical victory of the American naval counter-blockade?

For now, yes. In other words, it was thought that the Americans would not dare. Some commentators said that the United States would never dare to stop a tanker with a Chinese flag in front of American destroyers. However, the tankers had no Chinese flags because they were bulk carriers under sanctions, oil under sanctions. They had flags of Malawi or flags of convenience. And so none of them passed. So, in a way, the United States have managed to initiate a process that impacts China’s supply of Iranian oil and, above all, reduces Iran’s revenues.

Do you think China could also have influenced this opening? We have this opening announced by the Iranian Foreign Minister. Can the Iranian opening of the Strait of Hormuz really be talked about tonight?

Let’s wait and see, but until now, the Iranians had never said they were reopening it. Indeed, the Chinese cannot afford, even if for now they have significant oil reserves, for this situation to last forever since it is a manufacturing empire that needs a constant flow of hydrocarbons, otherwise they will be in a bad situation. This is not necessarily what they want. Moreover, it is clear that, of all the countries, there is a desire to slow down. For example, if the oil flow were stuck for a long time, including LNG, we will have problems with kerosene and some airlines have already – KLM, Lufthansa – canceled flights and blocked a number of routes from the end of the month.

Click on the video to watch the full interview.