Polymarket: The World of Predictive Markets Fueled by Controversy

“Will Trump praise Allah by April 15th?” “How many tweets will Elon Musk send from April 7th to April 14th, 2026?” These questions may initially seem humorous. However, behind each lies millions of euros at stake. Other topics, such as the date of an Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, where thousands of civilians have lost their lives since the end of February and the beginning of a Trumpian war, have unpredictable consequences. Welcome to the lunar world of Polymarket, banned in France but easily accessible, the most famous prediction market where millions (or billions?) of dollars flow daily. It is an opaque world, seemingly highly addictive, with accusations against insiders for manipulating prices to profit.

Recent Cases Raising Questions

In early January, an internet user won over 400,000 dollars by betting on the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro via Polymarket just hours before his capture.

A few weeks ago, six accounts on Polymarket pocketed 1.2 million dollars by betting on an American attack on Iran on February 28th, the day the offensive began. According to an analysis by the specialized site Bubblemaps, the bets were placed just hours before the bombings began.

“Gamblers do not have the same motivations or information,” emphasizes economist and researcher Jamal Bouoiyour, speaking to actu.fr. Could this distort the market?

Yes. While the market itself may not be directly biased, the information entering it can alter outcomes. Not everyone has the same level of knowledge, and many criticize the platform for harboring insider dealings.

Stock Market and Betting

To understand these criticisms, one must look at how Polymarket operates. “It is an open market,” notes Guillaume Laborderie, director of markets and innovation at the National Gaming Authority (ANJ).

One question, two answers: “yes” or “no”. “Bettors take positions, and there is a deadline for this bet,” summarizes Guillaume Laborderie. So far, it’s pretty simple.

There is a resale function, which adds a financial layer. One can buy a “yes” with low odds hoping that it will turn in their favor.

This unique risk factor with Polymarket and prediction markets is the ability to engage in buying and selling, similar to the stock market. “There are financial market codes that give the player more of a trader position than a bettor,” adds Guillaume Laborderie, a concern for the ANJ.

Risks for Gamblers

The marketing of these prediction platforms revolves around the idea that it could be considered an investment, while in reality, it remains a bet.

“There is an illusion of competence, generating a false sense of control,” explains the director of markets and innovation at the ANJ. This illusion is further reinforced by the platform’s presentation.

The risk? The more users believe they are competent, the more they play, leading to potential addiction. Moreover, the safeguards are very lax: no majority control, dubious fraud prevention mechanisms, and no betting limits like playing time or identification of large bettors.

Bias?

Polymarket, without adequate player protections, is therefore more addictive than regular betting. Additionally, the platform is frequently accused of insider trading, which according to Le Robert, is “an offense committed by a person who uses privileged information they hold to make profitable stock market operations.”

The market itself is not biased, but it is influenced by knowledge.

The general public believes in the platform’s flawless image, with “the scientific aspect that makes you want to play,” but in reality, some have an advantage.

An example of a potentially advantaged individual in this system? Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is a member of the advisory board and investor in Polymarket. While we do not claim he engaged in insider trading, the closeness between the U.S. government and the company is raising suspicions following bets won on an American attack in Iran or Maduro’s capture.

People betting large sums of money are not doing so randomly.

Banned in France?

Currently, Polymarket and other predictive markets are not authorized in France. It is the American company itself that chose to block access in France to comply with regulations.

This poses a similar problem to authorities as with pornographic sites: this blocking is easily circumvented with the help of VPNs. Could Polymarket be banned?

“Polymarket could request approval,” suggests Guillaume Laborderie, director of markets and innovation at the ANJ. “But only for sports betting and subject to adapting the offerings and safeguards to the French regulatory framework.”

As for other aspects, Guillaume Laborderie explains, “The regulatory framework needs to be updated and exceptions added,” recalling that all forms of gambling are prohibited by definition. The National Lottery, Unibet, and the like have exceptions.

In the meantime, you can still visit the site to see the different bets and their odds. When asked, “When will Israel stop its offensive in Lebanon?” a majority believe it will be before May 31 but after April 30.

There is definitely money to be made. However, one must stay informed and consider the hundreds of Lebanese lives lost under the bombs.

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