Air freight: global demand accelerates by 11.2% in February despite geopolitics

The International Air Transport Association highlights a strong momentum in the sector, driven by global trade, but warns about uncertainties related to the Middle East and fuel costs.

IATA announces an 11.2% increase in global air freight demand in February 2026, measured in freight tonne kilometres (CTK), while capacity grows by 8.5%. International operations show even stronger growth, at +11.6%.

This performance comes in the context of a recovery in global trade (+5.2% in January) and improvement in the manufacturing climate, with the PMI reaching 53.1. Export orders are also increasing, supporting the outlook for air freight.

Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, highlights that “demand has grown significantly despite the seasonal effect of the Lunar New Year,” while warning that the conflict in the Middle East complicates visibility for the year.

Aviation fuel prices ultimately increased moderately year-on-year (+1.2%), but the note especially points out the volatility of refining margins (Brent-jet fuel spread) and supply tensions, which are more structuring risk factors than just the +1.2%.

Regionally, Africa (+21%) and the Middle East (+16.5%) recorded the strongest growth, while Latin America lags behind at +0.7%. Asia-Pacific (+13.6%) and North America (+9.4%) also show strong progress.