On February 23, at the Salon de l’agriculture, FranceAgriMer brought together a panel of maritime experts and agricultural advisors to decipher the impact of geopolitics on the maritime trade of agricultural and agri-food products. Four days later, the start of the war in the Near and Middle East brutally illustrated the topic.
Maritime transport represents 80% of global trade in value and 90% in volume. It is responsible for shipping French cereal and livestock productions to distant markets, either in bulk or in containers, and also provides them with some of the inputs they depend on. “And today, we see that it is completely disrupted by what is happening geopolitically and economically,” said Martin Gutton, Director General of FranceAgriMer, at the opening of the event.
For Cyrille Poirier-Coutansais, Director of Research at the Center for Maritime Strategic Studies, “we are entering a geopolitical era where, structurally, we will have repetitive conflicts because there is no longer a global referee.” Since 2008 and their “pivot towards Asia,” the United States no longer intervene as a global arbiter of regional conflicts but selectively, according to their direct interests, as currently seen in Iran.
Partly for this reason, maritime risks have increased in recent years. In the Suez Canal, especially. Louise Chevalier, from TLF Overseas – a syndicate representing 80% of French port traffic – recalled the consequences of the spectacular blockage of the canal by the container ship Ever Given in 2021: 369 ships immobilized in six days, port congestion, and freight cost increases.
Since 2023, attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen in the Red Sea have forced shipowners to divert their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Asia and Europe. The result: ten to twenty additional days of transit, a surge of 200% to 350% in freight rates on certain routes, and a spike in fuel costs.
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, poses a major risk for the agricultural sector. Majda En-nourhi, in charge of economic studies at FranceAgriMer, highlighted that “20% of global oil, 30% of urea, and 20% of ammonia pass through this 50-kilometer passage,” during a mid-March press briefing. Destabilization affects not only the energy market but also the fertilizer market.
The price of European gas has soared since the start of the war in Iran and the blockade of the strait, leading to an increase in nitrogen fertilizer prices.
These critical passages, including the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Malacca Strait, are vital for food security in the Middle East and the Far East regions, where imports heavily rely on maritime routes.
Beyond maritime vulnerabilities, geopolitics can close export markets. Algeria, once a major importer of French cereals, turned to other suppliers, like Russia, for diplomatic reasons.
China uses antidumping investigations as a pressure tool, impacting various European exports to the Chinese market. The US also uses tariffs, not only for protectionism but also geopolitics, leveraging them for concessions on various issues.
China has invested heavily in its agriculture, increasing its cereals harvest and reducing imports. It also competes with European products on the Southeast Asian markets.
The complex mixture of geopolitics, economy, customs geography, and international relations defines the current era, making French exports vulnerable due to their diversity across many products, destinations, and exporters.
