A more audible president when the world is tense
When the international scene heats up, the election, reforms, and daily quarrels often take a back seat. This is exactly what Emmanuel Macron’s rebound in March shows, in a context of high tensions in the Middle East.
The head of state gains 5 points in popularity and reaches 23% approval ratings. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu also advances by one point, to 36%. But behind this rise, there is already a worrying signal for the executive branch: the rise in fuel prices and concerns about purchasing power are starting to weigh on the political horizon.
What this rebound really measures
This type of barometer does not indicate whether a president “wins” or “loses” a political battle. It mainly measures a mood. And this mood can change quickly. In March, it seems to have been lifted by a specific issue: the crisis in Iran and, more broadly, France’s international role.
In the recent sequence, Emmanuel Macron chose not to align with Donald Trump. The Élysée convened a national defense and security council on March 1, and then the president addressed the French people on March 3 regarding Iran and the Middle East. This statement put diplomacy and security back at the forefront.
The phenomenon resembles a flag effect: in times of external crisis, a head of state can benefit from a rallying reflex. But here, the effect seems more targeted. According to the cited study, 95% of the verbatims from those interviewed focus on international issues. In other words, the French did not judge just a style or posture. They reacted to a very visible diplomatic sequence.
Why this matters politically
The rebound does not solve anything fundamentally. It does not make internal power struggles disappear. It can only offer a little breathing room. And this breathing room is precious, as presidential popularity remains historically low. In February, Emmanuel Macron was still at 18% satisfaction in the same barometer, after a 2-point drop. By June 2025, he had already risen to 23%. The March level therefore marks a return, not a lasting breakthrough.
For Matignon (French Prime Minister’s office), the short-term situation is more comfortable. Sébastien Lecornu rises to 36%, confirming a more stable image than the president’s. But the margin is thin. The rising fuel prices threaten to reopen a classic social front: the wallet. When pump prices rise, the debate leaves the chancelleries and returns to homes, commute routes, and tight budgets.
The phrase “purchasing power” is not an empty slogan. It is what remains once housing, energy, and transportation costs are paid. As soon as fuel prices increase, the impact is widespread. It affects car-dependent workers as well as rural and peri-urban households. This is often where the executive loses control, even as it gains points in the polls.
Two risks for the executive
The first risk is classic: attention shifting back to internal matters. Popularity boosted by international issues can crumble once the news focuses on prices, salaries, or pensions. The second risk is political: a president made more audible by external crises may be tempted to do too much in the regalian (state sovereignty) register, risking reigniting criticisms of the verticality of power.
From the opposition’s point of view, interpretations differ. Emmanuel Macron’s supporters may see it as evidence that a firm and independent line on the international stage pays off. His adversaries, however, point out that this support is temporary and says nothing about the country’s social situation. Some speak of stature, others of diversion.
This debate reflects a constant of the Fifth Republic: the president is stronger when speaking on behalf of the nation abroad than when mediating tensions internally. But this strength has its limits. A barometer does not transform a sequence. It only captures it.
What to watch for
The next steps will depend on two very concrete questions. First, will the crisis in the Middle East remain a central issue in public opinion, or will it fade behind national urgencies? Secondly, will the rise in fuel prices lead to a lasting strain on purchasing power? If the answer is yes, the spring rebound could quickly fade away.
The next test will not only be diplomatic. It will be social and budgetary. This is often where the true solidity of a rise in the polls is tested.
