The war is affecting food production and food security globally, impacting not only farmers but also migrant workers, said Maximo Torero to journalists at the UN headquarters in New York.
“Timing is crucial right now; time is running out and I believe we need to find a solution as quickly as possible,” he affirmed via videoconference from Rome.
A “double blow” for farmers
Since the war started on February 28, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by 95%.
Under normal circumstances, 35% of the world’s crude oil – 20 million barrels – as well as 30% of fertilizer trade and a fifth of liquefied natural gas transit through this strategic maritime corridor daily.
As a result, farmers are facing a “double blow” caused by soaring prices of fertilizers and fuel, two essential elements in agricultural production.
Concerns for consumers
If a solution is found quickly, markets could stabilize within about three months. However, the situation would drastically change if the crisis were to persist.
“The mid-term scenario of a three-month blockade would affect all farmers on the planet; we would then be faced with various factors that could have a major impact, especially during the next agricultural season,” he explained, mentioning a decrease in crop yields and substitution phenomena.
This situation could also generate competition from the biofuels sector, especially if the price of a barrel of oil were to exceed $100. Although farmers could benefit, “this would be detrimental to consumers, as prices would rise.”
Vulnerable countries
In the short term, priority must be given to countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where rice harvests are currently ongoing.
African nations dependent on imports are also vulnerable, he emphasized, even though “major exporters” like Argentina, Brazil, and the United States will also be affected.
In the Gulf region, Mr. Torero pointed out that food prices are “skyrocketing” in Iran. Although the country supplies about 70% of its own needs, the rest is imported.
At the same time, “major food importers” like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will face difficulties as no ships are currently heading to the region.
The Gulf countries also host millions of migrant workers from South Asia and East Africa; remittances to their home countries could decline if the conflict continues.
Solutions are needed now
To alleviate the crisis, Mr. Torero stressed the need to find alternative maritime routes in the short term.
“We must provide emergency support to import-dependent nations’ balance of payments before the planting seasons,” he added.
In the medium term, he recommends countries diversify fertilizer import sources, strengthen regional reserve sharing, and avoid export restrictions. In the long term, building resilience will be essential.
“We must give food systems the same strategic importance as energy and transportation sectors, investing accordingly to minimize these shocks,” he concluded.
