The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute warned this Monday of “an increase in the number of nuclear weapons deployed” and also points to China’s rapid development of its arsenal.
States with nuclear weapons are increasingly removing these weapons from stocks to install them on launch supports, posing an increased risk to global stability, researchers from the reference institute Sipri warned this Monday.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), the world’s nuclear powers have an estimated total of 12,187 warheads, of which around 9,745 are in stockpiles for potential use. This is a slight decrease from the previous year, because since the end of the Cold War, old warheads have generally been dismantled faster than new ones have been deployed, resulting in led to a reduction in the total number of warheads.
“The most worrying news is that, although the number of nuclear weapons has decreased, the level of nuclear dangers and risks is increasing,” said Karim Haggag, director of Sipri.
The downward trend in nuclear weapons stocks should be reversed in the years to come “because the pace of dismantling slows, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates”, estimates the institute in a press release. The weakening of strategic arms control systems, notably international agreements, and the rivalry between the great powers equipped with nuclear weapons are all additional signs of concern, according to Karim Haggag.
Out of stock
Another worrying trend is that “states with nuclear weapons are taking them out of their stockpiles and deploying them on nuclear vectors. We are therefore seeing an increase in the number of nuclear weapons deployed,” declared Karim Haggag.
The United States and Russia together hold approximately 83% of the world’s nuclear weapons stockpiles, with more than 5,000 warheads each. Both countries have programs to modernize their arsenals, each however encountering difficulties.
The United States’ nuclear modernization program is progressing, but faces “planning and financing difficulties likely to delay it further and considerably increase the cost”, writes Sipri. The Russian program has also been challenged by failed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests, while economic sanctions and constraints linked to the war in Ukraine also appear to be affecting it.
Compétition géopolitique
At the same time, China is developing its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. “The intensification of geopolitical competition strongly encourages China to rely more on nuclear weapons,” declared Karim Haggag. According to Sipri, China now has 620 warheads and, depending on how it decides to structure its forces, it could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the United States by 2030.
Even if the country reached 1,000 nuclear warheads by then, this would still only correspond to a quarter of the American and Russian stocks, notes the institute. In Europe, France and the United Kingdom have maintained their nuclear arsenals at a stable level, at 290 and 225 respectively, but Sipri notes that the British stock is expected to increase following a review of the program in 2021. French President Emmanuel Macron also ordered an increase in the stock in March French.
India would have slightly increased its nuclear arsenal to bring it to 190 warheads. The number of nuclear warheads in Pakistan, India’s rival, remained stable at 170, but the country continued to accumulate fissile material, “suggesting that its nuclear arsenal could expand over the next decade.”
North Korea also continues to “pursue its stated objective of ‘exponentially’ expanding its nuclear arsenal,” according to Sipri, which estimates that North Korea has around 60 nuclear warheads. Israel, which does not recognize possessing nuclear weapons, is also in the process of modernizing its arsenal, estimated at around 90 warheads.
