The Formula 1 could be forced to further reassess its 2026 calendar. Following the cancellations in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, the rise in tensions linked to the Iranian crisis now threatens several other events of the season.
Concern is growing within the paddock regarding the holding of new events in the coming months. Formula 1 is worried about whether other Grand Prix races must be canceled with replacements to be planned well in advance to avoid a truncated championship, especially towards the end of the year.
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix, held in Baku, is particularly under scrutiny. Its geographic proximity to Iran raises serious security concerns. Being bordering Iran, the country’s location raises significant security concerns among teams and drivers.
In this context, vigilance is essential in the paddock, where the evolution of the geopolitical situation is closely monitored. But uncertainties are not limited to Baku, and the cancellation without replacement could be bearable for F1, bringing it down to 21 Grand Prix races instead of the current 22.
However, the situation is more worrisome for the end of the season, which could also be affected if things are not anticipated well in advance.
As is customary now, there are two races planned in Qatar and Abu Dhabi to conclude the season. A last-minute cancellation, if an interesting championship battle unfolds, would be extremely frustrating for everyone: the sport, the fans, and the media.
That is why the Grands Prix of Qatar and Abu Dhabi are closely monitored by the governing bodies, with no decision made yet at this stage. However, the rescheduling of new races, with ticketing, is in the works. A plan B that could take place in the United States and/or Europe.
The financial consequences are already beginning to be felt. The cancellations of races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will result in an estimated loss of 100 million euros for the commercial rights holders of the discipline. Without considering the rest of the revenue. Each team can expect a revenue loss of 5 to 10 million euros, although this may be partly offset by reduced expenses (parts and various components, engines, etc.).
In the short term, no replacement solution is being considered for Bahrain or Saudi Arabia as some rumors suggested a few days ago. And there are no immediate substitute circuits for Qatar and Abu Dhabi, even if Austin seems to be favored to be mobilized twice, after the Las Vegas GP. The challenge remains to find the circuit for the finale.
If three additional races were to be removed, the impact on the calendar would be considerable. If Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi were also taken out, the calendar would then drop to a meager total of 17 Grand Prix races. It would be easier to accept if Mercedes F1 significantly widened the gap with Ferrari and the other competitors. Less so in the case of an intense battle between these two teams, or even a third if McLaren manages to catch up early enough.
Whatever happens, in an uncertain international context, Formula 1 finds itself tied to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, with a more fragile calendar than ever.
