Sign of the times, across the Atlantic, major strategy consulting firms have armed themselves with geopolitical expertise. McKinsey launched its Geopolitics Advisory Council in 2023, complemented by a Geopolitics Practice by the end of 2025; and BCG opened its Center for Geopolitics in 2024. In France today, how is the sector mobilizing on geopolitics? Hervé Baculard, senior partner and co-founder of Kea, and Romain Capaldi, partner at Cylad, share their responses.
” We have moved from a punctual geopolitical risk to a permanent geopolitical risk, ” summarizes Romain Capaldi. ” Geopolitical events are increasing in number, but also in magnitude and impact. ” Today, explains Hervé Baculard, ” we are in a dynamic evolution of country risk called geopolitics. The acceleration of events forces us to focus on this discipline. It is not a nice to have, it is a must-have. ” The issue of country risk no longer only arises punctually at the time of investment decisions, but ” in operational, production or purchasing issues, on a daily basis, ” for Romain Capaldi.
This new situation elicits ” strong demand for advice, ” he continues, citing the example of a major energy company that approached them to identify weak signals and uncertainties to anticipate in the near future, in assessing its investment portfolio. This impression is confirmed by Hervé Baculard, who specifies: ” There is an awareness on the part of clients, and every Trump outburst naturally fuels the question! We receive requests for missions that we did not have at all before. Anticipation missions, for example on sourcing issues. It can be about establishing a second source of supply for a critical product or raw material, or even to ” exit a toxic country ” to secure flows or manage a reputation risk. “
Does this mean more missions? Not necessarily, according to Romain Capaldi. ” It is rather a full-fledged element of missions. Geopolitics has become part of our culture, our way of doing things and seeing things. “
The strategy consultants are fully aware of the subject, but what methods are they using to address it? A few months ago, a researcher at Ifri expressed doubts about the relevance of strategy consulting actors on the subject, believing that they tended to operate in isolation, while continuing to live in the illusion of an inevitable globalization. Hervé Baculard’s analysis contradicts this concern. He believes that ” we have moved from the Golden Triangle to the iron triangle. The Golden Triangle corresponded to the alignment between three positive dynamics: multilateralism, catching up with emerging countries, and demography. In a few years, an iron triangle has emerged: closing of borders, competition between blocs, and generalized aging. “
In terms of mobilized skills, Kea has internally set up a ” strategy university, ” led by Angelos Souriadakis and Hervé Baculard. Within this framework, the company has collaborated with a research institute. Kea has also produced a series of podcasts with the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies, currently led by Admiral Ausseur. The latest episode has an eloquent title: ” Societies during wartime, consequences for businesses. “
Beyond this work with FMES, ” we aggregate the necessary expertise according to specific needs. Building a whole ecosystem of skills is essential. It cannot be improvised, ” says Romain Capaldi. Like in specialized American cabinets, among these experts are former diplomats or military personnel who have been involved in affairs. ” During the last wargame we organized, for example, there was a former general specializing in cybersecurity. “
Cylad, on the other hand, does not systematically engage in partnerships with think tanks. ” We can rely on specialized firms on certain technical subjects. But for the most part, the skills are internal. We have integrated the observation of these geopolitical phenomena into each team, in each sector, and in each project, ” explains Romain Capaldi.
” A strong emphasis on the sectoral approach ” is important, according to Hervé Baculard. ” The sectors interested in this approach are primarily industries that require long-term infrastructure and investments. But also, increasingly, financial services and all exporting sectors. Those with significant procurement issues. “
Romain Capaldi highlights the weight of geopolitical issues in ” aerospace, space, defense, energy, utilities, and certain large industries operating in a global system. Geopolitics has infiltrated the boardrooms of energy-intensive players, who seek to secure prices through long-term contracts and diversify sourcing strategies. Issues that will also be encountered with other raw materials, such as rare earths. “
These observations show that geopolitical expertise is also ” sectorally dependent. We have moved from a reactive ex post logic to an anticipatory ex ante logic, which requires a good understanding of the dynamics of each sector. Today, the strategy consulting firms that are successful are those that have developed strong sectoral expertise, with both a good understanding of regulatory developments, technologies, and geopolitical challenges. “
” Geopolitics is not a science, but a method and a state of mind, ” adds Romain Capaldi. ” The construction of scenarios appears to be essential. Observing is no longer sufficient. It is necessary to establish a scenario bank and develop action plans for each of them to ensure resilience in times of crisis. On infrastructure deployment projects, especially energy-related, scenarios taking into account the entire supply chain, cabling, copper, as well as the necessary skills will be developed. We will also imagine what could happen in extreme scenarios, such as the annexation of Taiwan by China, by devising mitigation strategies. The consideration of geopolitical risks also requires long-term work ” of observing weak signals, such as the arrival of new regulations, for example, to be ready when the time comes.
Kes emphasizes the importance of the pedagogical value of lived or simulated experiences. According to Hervé Baculard, ” It is essential to expose executives to geopolitics. Reading, attending conferences is not enough. We organize wargames or strategic games with the executive committee. This exposes them to regional or global geopolitical issues and their impact on the company, and allows them to react with colleagues in real situations. “
” We have internally implemented a Strategic Foresight method. Geopolitics is not a science, it is primarily about questioning the possibilities. We have developed an operational toolbox to support companies’ strategies in different geographies. Among these tools, we find the idea of ” developing companies’ soft power ” and also ” moving from a global strategy to a corridor strategy, ” which involves rethinking the relationships between the different components of an international group in a more decentralized manner. ” There are many exchanges between India and East Africa, often through Dubai. What opportunities can be derived for the business in a particular sector? It is necessary to stop seeing the world as a homogeneous and Western-centric space. “
Alliances represent another tool in the ” toolbox. ” ” You cannot, we do not know how to do everything alone. Today, to establish yourself in complex major countries, you have to seek alliances with partners to facilitate integration, share value, and even technologies, ” explains Hervé Baculard.
” We never anticipate everything, ” notes Hervé Baculard. ” The goal is to be more realistic about the events that could happen, to develop agility, to imagine possible plans, to reduce risks. ” This requires, above all, ” a transformation of the state of mind, ” for strategy consulting and its clients.
