Is there a commander-in-chief in this war? This question arises at every stage of this conflict that continues its inexorable escalation. Donald Trump seems surprised by the actions of his Israeli ally; he seems surprised that Iran is still able to retaliate, and surely; and he is in denial about the fact that the impact of the war he triggered in Iran is derailing the global economy.
The battle of the gas installations that took place in the last two days is an instructive case. In the first episode, the Israeli aviation bombs the Iranian gas site of Pars-south, a central infrastructure in the Iranian economy. A new target in this third week of intensive bombings by the United States and Israel.
The Iranian response comes shortly after: it targets the energy installations of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The damages on the giant Qatari gas site of Ras Laffan, three times the size of Paris, are so extensive that it will take several years to repair them. And that’s where everything goes wrong.
Donald Trump receives a call from the Emir of Qatar furious about the Israeli bombing that triggered these Iranian retaliations. Trump expresses surprise, stating that he was not informed of this target choice, and demands that the energy installations be spared.
On their side, the Israelis make it known that the coordination between the two armies, Israeli and American, is total, and everything is decided together. This cacophony is of the worst kind in the midst of a massive war.
What this episode reveals is how Israel leads the game in this conflict, illustrating the amateurism of Donald Trump and his team overwhelmed by events. In a tweet, Trump appears authoritarian by writing in large letters, “NO OTHER ATTACK WILL BE CARRIED OUT BY ISRAEL” on the Pars site. But it’s too late.
The consequences of this attack? First, Iran has proven its ability to retaliate, despite three weeks of bombings and the decapitation of the highest levels of the political and security apparatus. This seems to surprise Donald Trump, who did not understand that the Iranian regime has been preparing for this confrontation for years.
Second, the cost of the war becomes increasingly high each day. The price of gas on the international market has risen by 30% after these destructions, the Gulf countries’ exasperation is at its peak, and the Pentagon is requesting an additional $200 billion in credits for its operations.
The survival strategy of the Iranian regime has been clear from the start: it tests Donald Trump’s endurance against bad news that have a political impact in the United States. Its strength lies in its ability to endure more destruction and deaths than the American leader, who was counting on a quick victory. But until when?
Iranian leaders are betting that Donald Trump will want to stop first, despite Israel’s desire to go all the way – even if the American president can only claim a Pyrrhic victory, when he promised an “excursion” and a total victory.
