Since the start of the war between Iran on one side and the Israeli-American alliance on the other on February 28, 2026, the Gulf countries have been destabilized, even though they are not directly involved in the conflict. Among them, the United Arab Emirates, known mainly for the flamboyance of Dubai, are particularly affected.
Is the Emirati model at risk due to the conflict? The United Arab Emirates are facing a period of major uncertainty since the start of the regional conflict. The reputation of being a haven of peace and an idyllic destination, which forms a large part of the country’s economic attractiveness, is severely jeopardized. The Emirati government, aware of the vulnerability of its model based on investor and skilled expatriate trust, is trying to strictly control communication, especially with influencers and the press, to prevent any panic or mass exodus movements: “It is a regime whose economy relies on its good image, its good international reputation, so it is obviously essential for it to control this image by controlling communication. Also, the economy of the United Arab Emirates relies on skilled and wealthy expatriates, foreign investors, and in the face of this conflict, they are the ones most likely to leave the country quickly, jeopardizing the economic model,” explains Laurence Louër. It is important to remember that 90% of the population of the United Arab Emirates is actually foreign.
A dual economic architecture: Abu Dhabi and Dubai. As Alexandre Kazerouni reminds us, the economic dynamism of the United Arab Emirates is based on a historical and geographical distinction between Abu Dhabi, rich in hydrocarbons, and Dubai, a commercial hub. Abu Dhabi, which holds the majority of oil reserves, has centralized the federal state using its financial wealth to ensure the dependence of other emirates. On the other hand, Dubai has built its growth on its deep-water port and airport infrastructure, establishing itself as a global transit platform, a visionary project that has capitalized on regional tensions and the needs of neighboring markets.
Will the war change the relations between Iran and the United Arab Emirates? The relations between Iran and the United Arab Emirates have been particularly intense for many years. According to Alexandre Kazerouni, historical commercial and demographic exchanges with Iran have greatly contributed to the expansion of Dubai. We must therefore explain this Iranian desire to target the Emirates. For Laurence Louër, it is important to recall that the issue of defense and security policy in the United Arab Emirates is important for Iran for two reasons. Firstly, because there are American, French, and British military bases in the Emirates. Secondly, since the signing of the Abraham Accords between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv in 2020, “we know that there is a very advanced security cooperation with Israel, which may explain why the United Arab Emirates are the preferred target of Iranian attacks at the moment,” she says.
