AI: main business risk, facing geopolitical tensions

For the first time, leaders have identified artificial intelligence as their primary challenge, ahead of geopolitical unrest, cyberattacks, and economic instability. This is revealed in a survey by the Conference Board, an international economic research organization based in the United States that advises businesses and analyzes global business trends.

This realization is accompanied by an acceleration of investments. This quarter, 35% of executives plan to increase their expenses, compared to 22% in the previous quarter. At the same time, their confidence is said to be at its highest level since the beginning of 2025.

“We are observing a renewed optimism among leaders of large companies,” analyzes Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board. “Their expectations for their sector have shifted from cautious optimism to confident assurance,” she summarizes.

Leaders now face a dilemma when it comes to investing in AI. Underinvesting in AI could expose their company to a competitive disadvantage against bolder rivals. Overinvesting risks generating disappointing returns, missing financial targets, and provoking investor backlash.

“We are likely approaching the most significant labor reorganization since several generations,” says economist Dana Peterson.

If AI stimulates innovation and creates new opportunities, it also generates social costs, warns Lisa Cook. Job losses precede the creation of new positions, leading to increased unemployment and potentially pushing people out of the workforce during the transition. This situation could create challenges for many employees and their families.

In manufacturing, AI could mirror the electrification pattern of the last century: substantial benefits, but slower than expected, according to Michael Barr, also a Fed governor. “Manufacturing sector data shows that productivity follows a J-curve after adoption: short-term adaptation costs lead to losses before companies that persevere realize significant long-term gains,” he explains.

As a result, 60% of Fortune 500 executives consider AI as the main risk to their sector, a seven-point increase from the fourth quarter of 2025. This concern even surpasses geopolitical instability by one point and cyberattacks by four points.

Please note, however, that this study was conducted before the outbreak of the war in Iran.

[Context: The Conference Board conducted a survey revealing that leaders now see AI as their top challenge and are increasing their investments in it. Confidence is also high among executives.]

[Fact Check: The study was done before the conflict in Iran, so the results may not reflect the current geopolitical situation.]