The recent surge in oil and gas prices is raising concerns in international markets. In a context of war in the Middle East and uncertainties in global energy supply, prices have experienced sharp movements in recent days, reaching levels not seen in a long time.
Tensions in the region have led to a rapid rise in crude oil prices. On Monday, the price of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate reached nearly $119 per barrel. By 13:40 GMT, the price of Brent was still climbing by 10.09% to $102.04, and American WTI by 9.51% to $100.40. As for natural gas, the European reference TTF rose by 10.73% to 59.11 euros per megawatt-hour, after surging by 30% at the opening.
Analysts believe this volatility reflects what some call a “geopolitical tax,” a rise more linked to political risks than actual demand. One sensitive point is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime passage between Iran and Oman that is effectively closed due to Iranian threats of missiles or sea mines. Disruptions in this area could affect over 20% of global energy consumption.
The increase is not limited to oil. The gas market is also experiencing tensions, especially after the suspension of some liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. This situation could directly impact Europe, particularly dependent on imports for energy supply, especially during winter.
The effects of this energy surge are not confined to countries directly involved in tensions. Major economic powers like the United States, China, and the European Union are already feeling the impact.
For energy-importing countries like Lebanon, the impact could be significant. Rising energy costs directly affect prices of goods and services, fueling inflation and putting pressure on household purchasing power.
Europe could also face a double blow: energy and industrial. The Gulf is both an energy supplier and a hub for petrochemical products and fertilizers, crucial for industry and agriculture.
Despite the current tension, an unlimited rise in prices remains unlikely. Releasing strategic oil reserves jointly by G7 countries to stabilize global energy markets is being considered, which could help keep prices around $110 per barrel for some time before stabilizing as geopolitical tensions ease.
However, if the conflict persists and high energy prices continue, the consequences for the global economy could be significant, leading to global inflation and requiring urgent intervention by public authorities to prevent another global economic crisis.
