Oil follows geopolitics. The sun, however, does not obey it.

Every time a conflict erupts somewhere in the world, energy markets react remarkably fast. Oil prices change within hours. Maritime routes suddenly become a central strategic issue. Governments discreetly evaluate their reserves, supply chains, and vulnerabilities. Markets rediscover, almost overnight, a reality they tend to forget in times of calm: energy remains deeply intertwined with geopolitics.

This pattern is nothing new. From the oil crises of the 1970s to more recent supply disruptions, periods of geopolitical tension regularly remind us that energy flows rarely evolve outside the turbulence of international politics. Pipelines cross borders. Tankers navigate narrow maritime passages. A localized incident can have repercussions on markets thousands of kilometers away.

Yet, over the past decade, another narrative has emerged in the global energy debate: the promise of renewable energies. Solar panels in deserts. Wind farms along coastlines. A perspective in which energy systems would be less exposed to the political fragility that often characterizes fossil fuel supply chains.

This is an appealing vision. And, in many ways, it is already becoming a reality.

For example, the United Arab Emirates has heavily invested in building a diversified energy system over the past decade. The country is currently dedicating 189 billion dirhams to major clean energy projects and infrastructure to support its carbon neutrality strategy by 2050, while maintaining a reliable and advanced electrical grid.

By 2024, the UAE had surpassed 12 gigawatts of clean energy capacity. With 6.8 GW of renewables and 5.6 GW of nuclear energy, clean sources now represent over 30% of the country’s electricity production. These investments reflect a broader awareness: tomorrow’s energy security lies not in replacing one source with another, but in building diversified systems capable of absorbing shocks.

But geopolitical tensions also remind us of a more discreet and complex truth: energy systems do not only function within markets or political strategies. They also operate within the constraints imposed by nature.

Oil prices can skyrocket overnight. Gas shipments can be rerouted. Strategic reserves can be mobilized. The sun, on the other hand, has never followed a geopolitical calendar. The wind, too, has never adjusted its strength to market concerns.

This does not diminish the importance of renewable energies. Solar and wind power are essential pillars of the transition to cleaner and more sustainable energy systems. But they also illustrate why resilience must be at the heart of modern energy policies.

Contemporary economies rely on uninterrupted power supply. Hospitals, airports, data centers, digital networks, and increasingly, AI-related infrastructure depend on energy systems that must operate constantly. This is why energy security is no longer defined solely by access to resources but also by the resilience of the systems that deliver them.

Resilience relies on diversification. Solar is rapidly growing, nuclear energy provides a stable base in countries like the UAE, and natural gas continues to offer flexible production in many markets. Additionally, stronger grids, energy storage, and digital monitoring systems are becoming as essential as production itself.

Together, these elements help build systems capable of absorbing shocks, whether they stem from geopolitical or climate origins.

Some critics argue that renewable infrastructure could also be vulnerable during conflicts. Solar installations, like pipelines, refineries, or transmission lines, are not immune to disruptions. Global disruptions – natural and geopolitical – combined with tense supply chains, can delay projects and increase costs. According to sector estimates, these pressures could erode hundreds of millions of euros of value per gigawatt over the lifespan of a project.

This is why the response is increasingly moving towards localization. In Egypt, in 2025 we launched – in partnership with Egyptian, Chinese, and Bahraini actors – a $210 million solar industrial hub in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. The project includes two units with a combined annual capacity of 2 GW of solar cells and 2 GW of modules. While the module factory aims to meet regional demand in the Middle East and Africa, the cell unit is mainly intended for export. The goal is clear: reduce dependence on external disruptions and bring part of the energy transition closer to the markets it serves.

Energy security has never meant invulnerability. It has always been based on resilience.

Centralized installations can pose unique vulnerability points. Conversely, distributed renewable systems spread production across multiple sites, reducing the risk that a single disruption would paralyze the entire supply. The energy transition therefore represents not only an environmental challenge but also a strategic issue. It’s not just about replacing one energy source with another, but about building systems capable of operating reliably in a politically unpredictable and environmentally variable world.

Recent geopolitical tensions have once again shown how quickly energy issues can return to the center of global debate. But they have also shed light on a deeper reality. The future of energy will not be determined solely by politics or markets. It will also be shaped by much older and less negotiable forces. Oil markets may continue to follow geopolitics. The sun, however, will not.

Building energy systems capable of thriving in this reality could well be one of the major strategic challenges of the decades to come.