On March 16 at one minute past midnight, diesel jumped by 2 dirhams at the pump in Morocco. Gasoline followed at 1.44 dirham. Three weeks after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian-American conflict directly impacted gas stations in a country which produces almost none of what it burns.
It’s not a surprise. It’s a confirmation. In March, a study by the specialized magazine “Energy World” analyzed 75 world economies according to their exposure to an energy crisis. Morocco scored 74.6 out of 100, ranking fourth globally, behind Singapore, Turkmenistan, and Hong Kong. 90.1% of its energy mix relies on fossil fuels. Domestic production covers 6% of the demand. The remaining 94% comes from abroad, and 95% of natural gas imports pass through routes, with the main bottleneck, the Strait of Hormuz, being cleared from the markets in three days starting February 28.
“The Moroccan economy, not producing oil or gas, remains exposed to external shocks. These shocks first affect household purchasing power, then business competitiveness through rising production costs,” economist Khalid Achiban explained. The national energy bill ranges between 12 and 15 billion dollars per year, as clarified by Mostapha Labrak, an expert in hydrocarbons. This amount has mechanically increased since Brent surpassed 116 dollars per barrel, 20% higher than on the evening of February 28.
What worsens Morocco’s position is that the crisis not only hits the pumps. As the world’s leading phosphate producer through the OCP group, the Kingdom is dependent on sulfur to produce phosphoric acid, a fundamental step in transforming raw phosphate into marketable fertilizers. 44% of global sulfur exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy and agriculture: Maghreb’s double vulnerability in the Hormuz crisis is particularly acute in Morocco.
The country has reserves of diesel for 51 days, gasoline for 55 days, and secure coal and gas supplies until the end of June. Nevertheless, Achiban is not satisfied, stating that these stocks only absorb short-term shocks without providing a safety net against a prolonged disruption. The challenge, he specified, lies not only in the source of imports but also in the cost of transportation, insurance, and delivery times, as the global market reassesses geopolitical risks.
According to Abdelrahmi Bessaha, a former IMF consultant, “the mere perception of a disruption risk in one of these corridors can immediately lead to a rise in energy prices and a reevaluation of risks in financial markets.” Morocco is no longer at the perception stage.
In the markets, OPEC+ announced a new increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May, repeating the gesture made in March, largely seen as a political signal. Routes bypassing Hormuz remain congested and only cover a third of the usual flows. Meanwhile, Moroccan stocks keep turning.
