As observed by the German Marshal Von Moltke over two centuries ago: “No plan survives its first contact with the reality of the battlefield,” today’s NSS did not survive its first contact with the reality of American foreign policy.
When the Trump administration released its National Security Strategy (NSS) last year, an avalanche of analysis and headlines followed, explaining its radical implications for American foreign policy and the world. Personally, I concluded in one of my columns that no written document or bureaucratic process could contain Trump’s personal, chaotic, and opportunistic impulses, so I suggested at the time that the best thing to do was, for the first time, to simply ignore the NSS.
Less than a hundred days have passed and Trump has already undermined the fundamental principles of the National Security Strategy. The main triggering element was his decision to attack Iran.
Firstly, under the NSS, the Trump administration condemned previous administrations that aimed for “regime change” and advocated for an entirely new approach: flexible realism. This approach included, among other things, “good relations with nations of the world without imposing democratic changes or other social transformations that deviate from their traditions and history.” With the attack on Iran, Trump rejected the flexible realism of the MAGA movement and returned to the traditional American policy of regime change. Commenting on the goals in Iran, Trump stated: “Regime change is the best thing that can happen,” and directly addressing the Iranian people, he called for regime change and embracing liberal democracy. Trump thus joined the traditional American elite, which has often seen foreign policy as a moral crusade to promote American values in the world, even if it involves regime change.
Secondly, under the auspices of the NSS, the Trump administration condemned America’s “endless wars” and announced to the world that from now on, it would be “America First.” To justify this new American policy, Trump referred to the “Founding Fathers” who, according to him, “clearly expressed their preference for non-interference in the affairs of other countries.” However, Trump not only decided to interfere in the “affairs of other countries,” he decided to bomb them. With the attack on Iran, Trump swept aside the idea of “America First.” He returned to the traditional foundations of a proactive foreign policy and the historical role of the United States as the “world’s policeman” – a goal that the NSS sought to avoid.
Thirdly, one of the key objectives of the NSS was to divert attention of the United States from the Middle East and focus on confronting major powers, especially China. In this view, the NSS concluded that the era when the Middle East dominated American foreign policy was over. This is also why, within the NSS, the Middle East is the last priority, while Asia is the first after the Western Hemisphere. By attacking Iran, Trump completely undermined the goals of the NSS, bringing the focus back to the Middle East and diverting American resources from China.
Fourthly, one of the key principles of the NSS was that “economic security is essential to national security” and that “maintaining freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a vital national interest.” By attacking Iran, Trump achieved exactly the opposite.
Three conclusions can be drawn from this Trump-Iran episode. Firstly, just like the German Marshal von Moltke observed over two centuries ago: “No plan survives its first contact with the reality of the battlefield,” the new National Security Strategy (NSS) did not survive its first contact with the reality of American foreign policy. At first contact with reality, the ideas of the MAGA movement collapsed. This leads us to the second conclusion: the new American foreign policy, or “America First,” never existed. It was neither a serious policy nor strategy, but simply a campaign slogan and rhetoric. Thirdly, the Iranian fiasco revealed the naivety and fragility of Trump’s personal approach to foreign policy, as well as the victory of the “deep state” that the MAGA movement sought to overcome. Trump’s gleeful joy in the face of Iran demonstrated that the traditional American state apparatus remains the dominant force in Washington. When the efforts of his inner circle – led by figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – failed, Trump turned to the “deep state” for help. A few days after the start of the conflict with Iran, Trump realized that only the American military and diplomatic apparatus could prevent a total fiasco in Iran. In other words, this fiasco revealed that there is no “Trumpian” foreign policy, but only traditional American foreign policy, this time disguised as an aggressive Twitter user.
