The Sapiens Institute publishes an analysis on the risks of a new mandate for Donald Trump and urges Europe to urgently prepare.
In a tense global geopolitical context, the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025 is a major source of concern for European chancelleries. The Sapiens Institute, a French think tank specializing in economic and social issues, publishes an analysis titled “Trump versus Europe: How to prepare for the shock?” Written by expert Erwan Le Noan, the document makes a sober assessment: the European Union is not ready to face the consequences of a new Trump presidency, which would be based on an even more pronounced “America First” doctrine. The report warns of a triple shock, both commercial, strategic, and diplomatic, that could profoundly destabilize the Old Continent.
A triple commercial, strategic, and diplomatic shock
The first aspect of the threat is economic. The report anticipates a significant protectionist offensive, with the possible imposition of universal tariffs of at least 10% on all imports to the United States, potentially reaching 60% for Chinese products. Such a measure would send shockwaves through heavily export-dependent European economies, notably Germany. This disruption to global trade flows would force Europe to rethink its supply chains and its own trade policy in a much more conflictual international environment.
Strategically, the concerns are even greater. Erwan Le Noan highlights Donald Trump’s distrust of NATO, which he has often referred to as obsolete. Questioning Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which guarantees collective defense of members, is no longer off-limits. A U.S. disengagement would leave Europe alone to face its security responsibilities, particularly on its eastern flank. The issue of supporting Ukraine would then become exclusively European, with all the budgetary and industrial implications that entails. The report emphasizes that Europe’s strategic dependence on Washington is currently its greatest vulnerability.
A belated and inadequate awareness
Faced with these existential threats, the Sapiens Institute’s analysis points to a “belated and inadequate awareness” among European leaders. Despite some rhetorical advances on the need for strategic autonomy, actions have been slow to follow. Defense budgets, while increasing in some countries, remain generally insufficient to fill the void left by an American withdrawal. “Europe has long been blind to its strategic dependence. The awakening could be brutal if we do not now build the pillars of our own sovereignty,” analyzes Erwan Le Noan in the note. The author criticizes a form of naivety that has prevailed for too long, hoping for a return to normal transatlantic relations that may never materialize.
The urgent need to build European sovereignty
The report does not settle for an alarmist diagnosis and proposes several avenues for Europe to “break free.” The first urgent step is to massively strengthen the European defense industry to ensure autonomous production capacity in arms and ammunition. This requires coordinated increases in military spending and joint equipment programs. Economically, the European Union must acquire more active and robust trade policy tools to respond to American protectionism and secure its critical raw material and key technology supplies. In conclusion, the Sapiens Institute calls for a true political awakening to transform the concept of European sovereignty into a tangible reality. For the authors, the time for hesitation is over: Europe must prepare for the shock now, or risk enduring lasting strategic marginalization on the global stage.
