Despite the conflict in the Middle East, an Allianz Trade study reveals that 75% of global exporters anticipate positive growth in 2026.
The geopolitical uncertainty, heightened by the conflict in the Middle East, only moderately dampens the confidence of exporting businesses. According to the latest edition of the Global Survey published by Allianz Trade on Wednesday, three-quarters of exporters (75%) expect growth in their activities in 2026. This survey, conducted in February and March 2026 among 6,000 companies in 13 major countries, shows notable resilience compared to the 2025 tariff shock, which had dropped forecasts by 40 points.
However, this optimism is tinged with caution. “This optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict persists,” warns Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade. She notes that confidence has already declined by more than 10 points in Vietnam, the United States, and Spain, and by 9 points in China.
Geopolitical Risk, a New Major Concern
The conflict has reshaped the hierarchy of threats for businesses. Geopolitical and political risk is now seen as the primary global threat by 65% of respondents, surpassing supply chain complexity, which was the top concern in 2025. Supply chain difficulties, such as supplier failures and raw material shortages, rank second at 57%.
Despite the displayed confidence, the current landscape is tightening trade financing conditions. Payment deadlines are getting longer: the share of companies paid in over 70 days has risen from 15% to 24% since the start of the conflict. At the same time, the risk of non-payment has increased, with 40% of companies expecting a rise in this risk (+6 points). The most exposed sectors are the pharmaceutical industry, construction, and information technology.
French Companies’ Agility in the Face of Uncertainty
French companies are even more optimistic than average, with nearly 8 out of 10 anticipating an increase in their export revenue in 2026. Among them, 39% expect moderate growth (+2% to +5%) and 32.5% anticipate stronger progress (+5% to +10%).
In light of this situation, French exporters are adapting their strategies. They now prefer politically stable regions (56%) and rely on local partnerships to overcome challenges (53%). China remains strategically important: 69% of French companies will maintain a stable presence in the country in 2026, and 23% even plan to increase it.
“French export companies are facing unprecedented challenges in their supply chains, and 67% of the surveyed companies identify political and geopolitical risks as the main threat, an increase of +37 points compared to 2025,” analyzes Ano Kuhanathan, Sector Research Manager at Allianz Trade. “Despite these obstacles, French companies are responding with agility: 63% are turning to new markets, 58% are diversifying their suppliers, and 58% are routing their products through third-party markets.”
A Reconfiguration of Global Supply Chains
On a global scale, companies have massively reacted since the 2025 trade war. The most common adaptation strategies are stockpiling (64%), diversification towards new markets (64%), and using new suppliers (63%).
This reconfiguration is leading to a shift in gravity centers. The appeal of the United States as a growth market has eroded (only 13%), while Europe and Asia are now favored. The study highlights a surge in interest in new free trade agreements, which 93% of companies plan to use for their expansion. “However, the full potential of these agreements remains limited: non-tariff barriers, especially licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the main obstacle,” concludes Ana Boata, Director of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.
The comprehensive study also details the impact of tariffs, the evolution of investment priorities, and the adoption of artificial intelligence. Allianz Trade (allianz-trade.fr) is the global leader in credit insurance and a renowned specialist in bonding and political risk.
