The Paris Stock Exchange extended its recovery, supported by a relative easing of geopolitical tensions and reassuring monetary signals. According to press reports, the US executive branch would consider ending military operations against Iran, now favoring a diplomatic solution to restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This outlook has increased risk appetite while keeping oil prices stable despite continued disruptions in maritime traffic. At the same time, the Federal Reserve struck a measured tone. Jerome Powell indicated that the institution had the flexibility to assess the economic consequences of tensions in the Middle East without an immediate adjustment to its monetary policy. The Fed president also highlighted the strong anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that premature tightening of financial conditions could weaken the economic momentum. These elements led investors to revise their expectations, now dismissing the possibility of short-term monetary tightening. In this context, stock markets benefited from a more favorable environment towards the end of the session, with operators preferring to observe the evolution of geopolitical risk and its potential economic impact.
On the April future
Resistance levels are: 7811, then 7825.5, 7838.5, and potentially higher levels.
Support levels are: 7790.5, then 7746, 7709, 7685.5, and possibly lower levels.
Intraday, the trend is bullish above 7838.5.
Graphically, the CAC 40 Future has maintained the lower bound of the trading range it has been in since March 23, between 7685.5 and 7886 points. This stabilization followed the achievement of the chartist target from the long-term bullish channel at 7606 points, which served as strong technical support and favored short-term buyers’ return. A breach of the upper limit of this horizontal consolidation phase would confirm the ongoing recovery, targeting the intermediate resistance at 8053.5 points, then potentially higher levels. Integrating this bullish structure would end the current corrective phase and pave the way for filling the continuation and breakaway gaps at 8391 and 8549.5 points, respectively.
Conversely, breaking below the intraday alert at 7685.5 points would signal a fatigue in the ongoing rebound, with confirmation coming under the intermediate support at 7477 points. Below this level, the index would enter a new downward phase towards the neckline of the triple top reversal pattern at 7092 points. As long as this pivot level is maintained at the close, the long-term bias remains neutral. However, a breach would lead to a strong resumption of the corrective movement, aiming for a theoretical target of 5850 points.
In conclusion, speculative bullish positions are maintained in the Dynamic portfolio, with a strong investment focus on the Investor portfolio, favoring a positive trend recovery scenario. Nevertheless, a flexible approach is retained, ready to quickly adjust exposure in case of unfavorable technical signals.
