Donald Trump speaks without saying anything, and the price of oil rises again

Donald Trump has made unpredictability a weapon. He communicates abnormally, more than any other world leader: on his Truth Social network, in press statements several times a day. He monopolizes attention.

But it’s a double-edged sword. Speaking without saying anything cannot be a strategy when you are the president of the world’s premier power – especially in times of war.

When the White House announced yesterday that Trump would address the nation, no one knew what he would say; but the formal exercise was so unusual that it could only announce something, perhaps even the end of the war in Iran.

Upon arrival, in 19 minutes, he only repeated that he would hit Iran “hard for two or three weeks” to bring it back to “the stone age.” The price of oil, the number one barometer of these uncertain times, went up, contrary to what the White House may have hoped.

The President of the United States was expected to at least address two decisions: the timing and terms of the end of the war, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which conditions the return to normal for the global economy.

He was as vague as usual about the end of a war whose goals were no clearer in this speech than in his dozens of previous statements, changing multiple times. He continues to claim, against all evidence, that the Iranian regime has changed: although its leader has been decapitated, the system is still in place, as Iranians know well.

Yesterday, Trump claimed that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, but Tehran promptly denied it; the announcement is all the more misleading as the Iranian president does not have the power. The Revolutionary Guards are likely currently obeying only themselves. They have no reason to yield when they may feel that the Americans are desperately seeking an exit, and despite the bombs and destruction, they retain the initiative.

Trump is all the more disappointed as he asserted, against all evidence, that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened “naturally” – his word – once the war is concluded. The risk, if the war were to end today, is to the contrary that Iran would remain in control of the strait. A situation worse than before the war. The same goes for the nuclear issue, which has disappeared from speeches even though it was an urgent threat.

So we have a President struggling to conceal his frustration, against his European allies whom he threatens with a NATO exit – but not a word on this explosive subject in this formal speech; frustration against an opponent tougher and more resilient than promised to him; frustration finally against the all-powerful, indisputable might of his army, yet unable to bend an opponent who does not play by the rules.

In “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” Andersen’s famous tale, only a child dares to say “the king is naked.” Here too, no one in Donald Trump’s circle dares to tell him that he is mired in a futile conflict. Everyone sees it, but he continues to say that everything is going according to plan: until when?