The Elysee had scheduled Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Japan and South Korea this week, long before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. However, the regional crisis and the energy chaos it is causing across Asia offer a strong argument to the French President who has been seeking to foster an informal alliance of medium powers in response to the global disorder caused by China and also by the United States under Donald Trump.
During his discussions in Tokyo, from Tuesday to Thursday noon, and then in Seoul until Friday evening, the Head of State aims to explain to the leaders of the two most loyal Asian allies of Washington that they could join France in building strategic autonomy. This move towards emancipation would allow them to protect themselves, politically and economically, from the whims or outbursts of the two superpowers of the planet.
“An alliance of independents”
“This call from Emmanuel Macron for a ‘coalition of independents’, made during the Shangri-La Dialogue 2025, echoes Japan’s efforts to diversify its strategic partnerships,” explains Céline Pajon, the head of Japan and Indo-Pacific research at the Asia Center of Ifri.
And this message, notes the specialist, is beginning to be heard in South Korea, whose strategic horizon has long been overshadowed by the North Korean threat. The country is now also focusing on the challenges of the Indo-Pacific and gaining strategic relevance with the rise in its arms sales contracts even reaching Europe. More assertive on the international stage, Seoul will also be invited to the G7 summit in Evian in June.
If some senior Japanese officials and leading industrialists show a desire for autonomy, it is still more complicated to move political elites. And for Sanae Takaichi, the conservative Prime Minister whom Emmanuel Macron will meet on Wednesday, loyalty to America, regardless of the mistakes of its leader, must remain the absolute cornerstone of all Japanese diplomacy.
“In Japan, France’s quest for strategic autonomy is often perceived, albeit wrongly, as a sign of rupture with the United States and of complacency towards China,” remarks Céline Pajon.
“Convincing large corporations”
The analyst also points out the lack of major structural Franco-Japanese projects in defense and industrial cooperation. To develop a 6th generation stealth fighter (GCAP) by 2035, Tokyo has chosen to partner with London and Rome, rather than Paris. “And Japan would not be unhappy to see Germany join the program as well,” notes an expert.
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