There really is an exhaustion strategy: how Iran maintains pressure on the United States and Israel

The images captured in Bahrain represent Iran’s immediate response to the first Israeli-American strikes targeting Tehran. These strikes were aimed at decapitating the Iranian regime on the morning of February 28. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guard Corps promised relentless retaliation. “In a few moments,” the regime’s ideological army of mullahs will launch “the most devastating offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic.”

The war is declared. On February 28 and March 1, Iran and allied militias launch at least 40 strikes on Israel, the United Arab Emirates, or Qatar, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “For the Iranians, the idea is to maintain symbolic pressure,” says Sylvain Gaillaud, a researcher in contemporary history. “They want to punish the Israeli-American strikes without engaging in a conflict with the Gulf countries.”

A battle line is drawn in response to the “Epic Fury” and “Roaring Lion” operations. The specter of regional escalation reemerges in the Middle East.

Iran’s threats quickly materialize. Khamenei had assured, a month before his death, that in the face of a new war launched by Washington, Tehran’s response would be nothing short of a “regional conflict.”

In two hours on February 28, a first missile salvo is launched towards Israel. Air raid sirens sound in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem. Shots follow towards the Gulf countries near Iran. At least six American military facilities are targeted in 24 hours. The Iranian operation “Honest Promise 4” extends to Jordan, where ballistic missiles hit an air base, according to ISW. On March 1, a French naval base in the United Arab Emirates is also targeted. At the onset of the war, the Iranians conduct “a planned strike campaign, with initial symbolic strikes,” explains Etienne Marcuz, a weapons specialist.

The military sites are the primary target, but civilian infrastructure is still hit. In Dubai, a drone crashes into the artificial Palm tree, causing a massive explosion. Smoke rises from a hotel, and emergency responders rush to the scene. Four people are injured. In just four days, Iran fires over 200 missiles and more than 800 drones towards the UAE, according to the UAE Ministry of Defense. Qatar faces around a hundred missiles and forty drones, while Kuwait is hit by 178 missiles and nearly 400 drones, as reported by authorities. Although most of the weapons are intercepted, their unprecedented quantity is noted by the conflict monitoring organization Acled.

“For the first time in its history, Iran is attacking all the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE,” according to the conflict tracking organization Acled.

In Israel, a handful of Iranian missiles bypass anti-air defenses. An attack hits Tel Aviv on February 28, forming a large crater and causing one casualty. The following day, nine people are killed by an Iranian strike in Bet Shemesh, in the center of the Hebrew state.

According to ISW, Iran’s response is less forceful than in June 2025 during the twelve-day war. From Israel to the Gulf countries, the initial Iranian retaliations are not as intense as they hoped for, as noted by Etienne Marcuz. Missile and drone attacks recede from the UAE and Bahrain by March 2, according to ISW. “At the beginning of the conflict, there was a high density of launchers in Iran,” with a significant number of launchers destroyed, the units are more dispersed, and the attacks more sporadic,” explains the armaments specialist.

Weaker attacks still reach Cyprus, Azerbaijan, and Turkish airspace. Lebanon, the stronghold of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, is dragged back into the war. Tehran situates the conflict in a broader geographical context, aiming to raise the costs of the conflict for the Americans more than the Israelis. The Iranian regime targets two key aspects of war – economic and energy – in its strategy.

Iran targets the energy infrastructure of the Gulf countries within reach of its missiles. Alongside the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia, drones attack the Mesaieed power plant and the Ras Laffan oil and gas complex in Qatar. In the UAE, the Jebel Ali power plant and oil depots are also hit. From one Gulf country to another, dramatic visuals of flames and dense black smoke emerge from Iranian drone impacts.

These reprisals continue as the conflict progresses, noted by ISW. On March 3, Iranian drones crash at the Port of Salalah in Oman and target Duqm, nearly 600 km away. Duqm is a major commercial port, a logistical and maritime hub in the Arabian Sea, warns the research center. On the same day, debris from Iranian drones causes a massive fire at the Fujairah oil terminal in the UAE, a critical oil storage site.

This is accompanied by another form of retaliation – the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil production flows. Mid-March, only three civilian ships remain in the strait, down from 51 before the conflict started, according to Le Grand Continent. A steep decline due to attacks on vessels in regional waters. Within a week, about fifteen ships are targeted, according to ISW. The war forces the Gulf states – major oil suppliers – to reduce their oil production, causing the price of Brent crude to soar to over $100 per barrel after a week of hostilities.

“Sylvain Gaillaud, an expert on Iran-US relations, highlights Iran’s strategy of prolonging the conflict. ‘They want to maintain constant pressure and push the Americans to negotiate, potentially putting Donald Trump in a difficult situation,’ he explains.”

Etienne Marcuz observes a “cruise pace” in these retaliations between lower intensity and occasional relapses, highlighted by ISW. “Our goal is to launch a graduated response, an escalation that is maintained by showcasing what we are capable of,” says Sylvain Gaillaud, a specialist in Iran-US relations.

How far will the retaliation go? The war continues across the Middle East, a month after the start of Tel Aviv and Washington’s offensive. As potential negotiations between Iranians and Americans loom, the Revolutionary Guards continue to target military and energy sites from Israel to the Gulf on Friday.