Donald Trump promised a swift war. A month later, the American president awkwardly seeks a way out of the crisis. On Thursday, March 26, the White House tenant once again extended his deadline for possible American strikes against Iran’s power plants. He has given Tehran until April 6 to negotiate a ceasefire.
The American president hinted at a possible de-escalation by stating that his administration was in talks with Iran and that the discussions were going “very well.” This was officially denied by the Mullah regime, which remains the target of Israeli strikes.
According to Adel Bakawan, director of the European Institute for Studies on the Middle East and North Africa, there has never been direct discussion between the US and Iran, despite reports of talks.
Despite the efforts of the White House tenant to end the conflict he initiated, the war seems to be dragging on. Strikes continue, initial goals appear out of reach, and no clear solution is in sight. Several exit scenarios are emerging, but none is predominant.
The first scenario is a negotiated American withdrawal with a declaration of victory, which could depend on the negotiations to end the war. According to specialists, unilateral withdrawal is unlikely as a bilateral or multilateral peace process with Iran and regional countries may be necessary.
The military option remains a risk of escalation, with speculation of potential American ground intervention in Iran if negotiations fail. Experts warn that this could drastically change the nature of the conflict and pose significant regional and economic risks.
An internal uprising in Iran is also considered a potential scenario, although it is unlikely to lead to regime change through armed intervention. The Iranian opposition is weak and divided, lacking a cohesive alternative to the current regime.
Overall, the conclusion is that a diplomatic solution is inevitable to end the crisis. Negotiations will be key, focusing on regional security and other critical issues. The conflict appears far from over, with uncertain outcomes and no immediate resolutions in sight.
Context: – The article discusses the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, the potential exit strategies, and the challenges involved in finding a resolution. Fact Check: – The content discusses the complexities of the US-Iran conflict and the various scenarios being considered for resolution.
