What is the situation in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz as Americans deploy soldiers?
Pascal Boniface: We wonder how Trump will manage to get out of it, he seems a bit desperate to get out of the trap he has thrown himself into. He has put himself in a kind of mousetrap. So, he can send 8,000 men, 10,000 men … When Iraq was invaded in 2003, there were 160,000 men. Iran is three times larger than Iraq, it is a country three times more populous.
Who will really decide the end of this war?
Both, but it is Trump who will ultimately decide by declaring that he has won. He will say: “Mission accomplished, I have destroyed the Iranian nuclear program, it is no longer a threat thanks to me. The United States has never been as safe as they are now, thanks to me, since I have achieved all the objectives.”
Were American intelligence services surprised by Iranian resistance and strike capabilities?
I doubt they were listened to. In fact, the chief of staff of the American army was against this war. Afterwards, the military obey. He gave his professional opinion, saying that it was going to be very complicated and that it would not bring the expected results, meaning the cessation of the nuclear program but not regime change to have democracy in Iran. Trump relies only on his intuition. He is both the biggest liar ever at the head of the United States and, at the same time, he often says what he is going to do. He alternates between extreme frankness and brutality.
Do the new Iranian leaders seem even tougher?
In times of war, the tough ones prevail. So indeed, the Revolutionary Guards who took power. They are up against the wall. They know that if they lose, they are finished, the population will not forgive them. We are witnessing a hardening. It can be said that there is weakening of Iran and at the same time a strengthening of the Revolutionary Guards. The population is victim of both the strikes and the regime.
Will Israelis continue to strike Iran if Americans cease the war?
If Trump stops the strikes, the Israelis will have difficulty continuing alone, but they will continue in Lebanon. They do not need the Americans for Lebanon. There are around forty or fifty villages that are destroyed. So, we can see that the goal is to control all of South Lebanon, between the Israeli border and the Litani River.
Will the oil crisis really end this war?
Undeniably, it will be the price of gasoline that Americans put in their cars and the electorate that does not want to engage in distant and costly wars.
Are there any winners in this war?
Russia, to start, which will be able to sell its barrels of oil at a higher price, while the Americans have allowed India to buy Russian hydrocarbons again. The Chinese also benefit diplomatically from this war, explaining that their country is stable, that they are reliable partners and that they do not create international disorder.
Can this potentially push China to invade Taiwan after all?
What could deter Xi Jinping is seeing that after Russia in Ukraine and the United States in Iran, war doesn’t work as well as one might think and it is not always profitable. China may not want to trigger an economic crisis that would affect the Chinese consumer. Between the Communist Party and the Chinese population, the pact is, of course, nationalism, but also consumption.
