In an article by The Conversation, Oliver Vanden Eynde, a Professor holding a chair and research director at CNRS, Paris School of Economics, and Juan Vargas, a Professor of Economics at the University of Turin, discuss how extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, affecting social, economic, and political dynamics globally. The transition to a low-carbon economy has led to a significant demand for resources like lithium and rare earth minerals, often extracted from regions impacted by social tensions or armed conflicts.
For instance, the conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, where each accuses the other of arming rebel groups, is emblematic. These regions are rich in cobalt and copper, facing prolonged droughts and increasingly heavy rains, where agriculture remains a major livelihood.
Economists since 2010 have been exploring the complex links between climate change, resource exploitation, and conflict risk, providing robust results and actionable insights for policymakers. Agricultural disruptions due to droughts, heatwaves, and floods increase the likelihood and intensity of violence, especially in regions reliant on rain-fed agriculture.
The article also highlights how environmental degradation from conflicts, such as illegal mining, deforestation, and pollution, can worsen the situation. The rising prices of natural resources due to climate shocks can escalate conflicts, especially in areas where extraction is capital-intensive and resources are prone to looting.
Policies to mitigate conflict risks include individual insurance, social protection, and investments in irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and transportation infrastructure. However, challenges like ensuring proper design of insurance schemes to prevent unintended consequences and regulating mineral extraction to avoid exploitation by armed groups remain crucial.
Addressing conflict risks through public actions may be costly but is often more economical than prolonged conflicts, offering additional economic benefits. Scientific evidence is essential for designing effective policies, especially concerning factors like biodiversity loss and migrations that contribute to conflicts but are not always well-understood.
