War affects global food production and food security, having repercussions not only on farmers but also on migrant workers, said Maximo Torero to journalists at the UN headquarters in New York. “Timing is crucial at the moment; time is pressing urgently and I believe we must find a solution as quickly as possible,” he asserted via videoconference from Rome.
Since the outbreak of the war on February 28, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by 95%. Normally, 35% of the world’s crude oil – 20 million barrels – as well as 30% of fertilizer trade and a fifth of liquefied natural gas transit through this strategic maritime corridor daily. As a result, farmers are facing a “double shock” caused by soaring prices of fertilizers and fuel, two essential elements in agricultural production.
If a solution is found quickly, markets could stabilize within about three months. However, the situation would drastically change if the crisis continues. “The medium-term scenario of a three-month blockade would impact all farmers worldwide; we would then be faced with various factors that could have a major impact, mainly during the next agricultural season,” he explained, citing lower crop yields and substitution phenomena.
This situation could also lead to competition from the biofuel sector, especially if the price of a barrel of oil exceeds $100. While farmers may benefit, “it would be detrimental to consumers as prices would rise.”
In the short term, priority should be given to countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where rice harvests are currently underway. African nations dependent on imports are also vulnerable, even though “major exporters” like Argentina, Brazil, and the United States will also be affected. Regarding the Gulf region, Mr. Torero noted that food prices are “skyrocketing” in Iran, where about 70% of its food supply is imported.
At the same time, “major food importers” like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will face difficulties as no ships are currently heading to the region. The Gulf countries also host millions of migrant workers from South Asia and East Africa; remittances to their home countries could decrease if the conflict continues.
To alleviate the crisis, Mr. Torero emphasized the need to find alternative maritime routes in the short term. “We must provide emergency balance of payments support to import-dependent nations before the planting seasons,” he added.
In the medium term, he recommends that countries diversify sources of fertilizer imports, strengthen regional reserve sharing, and avoid export restrictions. In the long term, strengthening resilience will be essential. “We must give food systems the same strategic importance as energy and transport sectors, investing accordingly to minimize these shocks,” he concluded.
