The Cairo preparatory meeting on Tuesday is dedicated to supporting the Lebanese army ahead of the international conference France plans to host on March 5 in Paris. The objective is practical in nature and aims to establish concrete commitments that will serve as the basis for the announcements expected in the French capital.
The Cairo meeting is primarily a preparation meeting of the Quintet, bringing together representatives from the United States, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Other traditional partners of the army, such as Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, may also participate in the discussions, although there is no official confirmation at this stage.
The goal is to gather support at all levels, including direct financial assistance, logistical support, military equipment, and training programs. At this point, there is no exact assessment of future contributions available. Behind the scenes, there is an ambition to reach between 3 and 4 billion dollars over five years, roughly 600 to 700 million dollars annually. The United States could increase its support, but it would depend on a clear commitment from the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, especially as the second phase of the army’s plan has not yet been initiated.
Since 2006, the Lebanese army has been a major beneficiary of international military assistance in Lebanon. The United States has provided over 3 billion dollars to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) since 2006. The European Union has also been a significant supporter, with over 200 million euros in contributions since 2018, including various forms of equipment, surveillance systems, and support to regiments deployed in the south.
The meeting in Cairo aims to update the actual financial needs of the military institution. Internal estimates suggest the annual minimum cost to maintain operational cohesion of the army, including adjusted salaries, equipment maintenance, and basic logistics, exceeds 500 million dollars. The central question on Tuesday will not only be about the promised amounts but also about their sustainability and conditions. Western partners increasingly tie their commitments to political advancements, particularly in terms of structural reforms, militia disarmament, and the government’s monopoly on weapons.
The meeting will also focus on discussing the form of future support, including the possibility of a coordinated fund with a tracking mechanism to ensure funds are exclusively allocated to identified military needs. Transparency is crucial to convince hesitant contributors. The goal is not to mobilize billions of dollars as in the past but to consolidate a financial foundation for the military institution to function normally, which, while politically sensitive, plays a crucial role in the country’s stability.
