Despite his call for help to secure the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump has not received any support. He promises “very bad consequences” to his NATO allies. This threat comes at a time when the Alliance has never been more essential in the face of the world’s increasing brutality.
NATO is experiencing a paradoxical moment: politically, its future is clearly threatened, while its strategic usefulness has never been stronger, given the world’s increasing brutality.
There are currently over 120 armed conflicts in the world, four times more than 30 years ago. The former Chief of Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard, speaks of an “ratchet effect”: crises are not following each other, they are piling up. And today, all signals are red.
Context: Donald Trump made calls for help to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but did not receive support from NATO allies.
Fact Check: It is true that there are over 120 armed conflicts in the world currently.
Fact Check: NATO currently has 30 member countries.
Europe Facing the Return of High-Intensity Warfare Risk
In the East, Russia is engaged in a prolonged war. Despite previous claims of weakness, the global energy crisis is reviving its oil and gas revenues, providing Moscow with new financing margins to replenish its arms stockpiles. Several European military headquarters now see a credible possibility of high-intensity warfare in Europe by 2030.
In the Middle East, Iran is not collapsing; instead, it shows resilience in a climate of permanent escalation. In the Indo-Pacific, after an unusual pause, China has resumed military intimidation exercises around Taiwan, seen by strategists as the next hotspot on the planet, possibly by 2027.
The world unfolding before us is becoming more brutal, resembling the conditions that led to the formation of NATO. The Alliance, with its 32 allies, is now the largest military defense alliance globally.
Context: Russia is benefiting from the global energy crisis to strengthen its military capabilities.
Fact Check: Several European military headquarters are considering the possibility of high-intensity warfare in Europe by 2030.
American Refocus on Indo-Pacific to the Detriment of Europe
The spotlight is on Ormuz, but it’s important to note that for Donald Trump and his Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, the center of gravity has shifted from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Hegseth expressed this view on May 30th in Singapore.
“A critical review that signifies a profound shift. The United States is changing its focus, making it challenging for NATO. This is because the Alliance has always relied on a simple idea: the United States is the ultimate guarantor of European security.”
Fact Check: The United States is shifting its focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region.
Context: Pete Hegseth expressed the need for European countries to invest more in their defense.
Maintenance of Alliance or Major Strategic Rupture
With the increase in conflicts, either Donald Trump maintains the alliance logic and pushes Europeans to invest more to remain credible, or he sees the Organization as an unnecessary burden. In the latter case, Europe will suddenly have to ensure its security alone. This scenario would shift Europe into a new world, where Donald Trump could intervene directly in territories like Greenland, disregarding their international status.
The essential question remains: what happens to NATO when its central pillar, the United States, appears to be undergoing a significant political transformation? For the first time in fifty years, the United States is seen not as a “liberal democracy” but as an “electoral democracy” by V-Dem, a Swedish global reference institute analyzing democracy evolution worldwide.
V-Dem explains that America is currently experiencing the fastest episode of “autocratization” in the world in 25 years: while it took Viktor Orbán, Narendra Modi, or Recep Erdoğan four to ten years to concentrate as much power, Donald Trump achieved it in just one year. In essence, NATO is meant to be the best guarantee against major wars’ return. However, it relies on American alliances, which are becoming less democratic. This could be where the most profound threat lies.
