Japan: A significant military counterweight to China

Tokyo adapts its defense policy in response to Chinese ambitions. A choice of responsibility for an international order based on rules.

By Sébastien Boussois, Ph.D. in Political Science (*)

For several years, Japan has been evolving in a strategic environment that is no longer the same as that of the post-war period. The illusion of a stable regional order has given way to a more unstable reality, marked by China’s military power, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, and a growing desire to challenge existing balances. China is the world’s second-largest power, and the days when Tokyo held that position have long passed since the 1990s crisis. In this context, the reform of the Japanese system for transferring defense materials abroad is not a militaristic drift, but a lucid adaptation to a world where power once again becomes a central language.

It is essential to understand that the transfer of defense materials is not just about commercial interests. It is a strategic tool to stabilize partners, strengthen their defense capabilities, and ultimately contribute to a more robust regional balance. In an increasingly fragmented Indo-Pacific region, this approach is seen as a necessity rather than a purely ideological choice.

Supporting Japanese initiatives in a world where geopolitical fault lines are shifting towards the Indo-Pacific means defending a certain international order based on rules, not the law of the jungle. It is not about choosing sides reflexively but recognizing that not all actors play by the same rules. In reality, Japan is not breaking with its history; it is extending it by adapting. Faced with an increasingly assertive China, it chooses not flight or passivity but responsibility. And in the world to come, that could make all the difference.

(*) Ph.D. in Political Science, researcher in Arab world geopolitics and international relations, director of the European Geopolitical Institute (IGE), associated with CNAM Paris (Security and Defense team), at the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory (Switzerland). Media consultant and columnist.