Blockade announced by Donald Trump, possible toll imposed by Iran, threat of mines… What is the situation

This is one of the most scrutinized places on the planet due to the war in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is even more in the spotlight on Sunday, April 12, as the US President, Donald Trump, announced the naval blockade of this zone by the American navy, accusing Iran of not allowing ships to move freely there, and expressing his dissatisfaction after failed negotiations in Pakistan. In response, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards declared that they have “completely under control” the strait, and threatened to trap their enemies in a “deadly whirlwind.”

The ceasefire agreement reached on Tuesday had raised hopes for a resumption of traffic in this strategic passage, where about a quarter of the world’s oil passes through. The paralysis of traffic since the start of the war in the Middle East on February 28 has caused a surge in oil prices, disrupting the global economy and worrying many governments, particularly with the rise in pump prices.

Ships Trickle Through Despite Ceasefire

While both Iran and the United States assured that the ceasefire included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, few captains dared to venture through this passage that 120 ships on average passed through each day before the war. On Wednesday, the first day of the ceasefire, only five ships crossed, according to data from the company Kpler specializing in maritime flow analysis. Two days later, “only 19 ships had been reported crossing the strait since the ceasefire,” calculated the BBC, based on information from the Marine Traffic site, which allows real-time tracking of ships worldwide.

The situation remained the same as before the ceasefire: ten ships on average circulated every day the week of March 30, while the war raged. Among them were vessels operated by Iran, China, and India, allowing the Islamic Republic to continue exporting Iranian oil.

Maritime carriers justified their prudence by explaining the need for clarification on the terms of the ceasefire, while Iran claimed that the sea route remained closed to unauthorized ships. The coastguards of the Islamic Republic even threatened to “target and destroy” those who do not follow the rules, Reuters reported on Wednesday. The same day, the Iranian news agency Fars, close to the regime, claimed that traffic had been completely blocked on the orders of the Revolutionary Guards, who cited a ceasefire violation in Lebanon by Israel.

Quoted on Thursday by the American channel CNN, the shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, a giant in maritime freight, clarified its decision to “abstain from crossing the strait,” where six of its container ships remained blocked. “Our top priority is the safety of our employees, on land and at sea,” stated a spokesperson for the German shipping company. Like other days, the Marine Traffic site showed on Sunday an almost complete standstill in the strait, with hundreds of ships stationed on both sides of the zone. The United Nations reported on March 31 that about 2,000 ships and 20,000 sailors remained stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, a situation unprecedented since the Second World War.

Iran Accused of Establishing Toll

Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guards are accused of imposing a toll on ships that dare to brave the strait. They “charge up to $2 million per tanker for transit. Payment is accepted in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrencies, bypassing the dollar-based financial system and American sanctions,” reported Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, a global logistics and maritime transport company, interviewed by CNN. Bloomberg also reported that ships would be required to pay up to $2 million per passage. The Financial Times mentions a fee of one dollar per barrel of oil, paid in crypto-assets or yuan, the Chinese currency.

On Sunday, Donald Trump seemed to endorse this accusation and made it one of the justifications for the blockade in the strait. “I have ordered our navy to seek out and intercept any ships in international waters that have paid a toll to Iran,” he wrote on Truth Social, adding that “no one will be able to navigate the high seas safely if they pay an illegal toll.” The American president appeared less rigid on this idea on Wednesday when he mentioned the possibility of a joint venture between Iran and the United States to manage navigation and share toll revenue.

Marine Mines Remain Feared

The specter of mining the zone heightens uncertainty. After denying any such action despite accusations from Washington, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards declared on Thursday that ships passing through the strait should take two alternative routes near the Iranian coast, citing the possibility of encountering mines on the usual route further offshore. According to estimates from American authorities cited by the New York Times, Iran has around 5,000 floating mines in its arsenal. However, Donald Trump claims to have destroyed all Iranian ships capable of deploying them.

On Saturday, the US Central Command for the Middle East (Centcom) stated that two destroyers from its fleet had crossed the passage to begin “setting the conditions” for mine clearance in the strait as part of a broader mission to ensure that the strait is completely cleared of mines previously laid by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. In a message a few hours later on Truth Social, Donald Trump stated that the US had begun “the process of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.”

Donald Trump Now Wants to Impose a Blockade

On Sunday, a few hours after failed negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, Donald Trump reversed course and announced an American naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. “Effective immediately, the US Navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of blocking all ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz,” wrote the American president on his social network, specifying that “no one will be able to navigate the high seas safely if they pay an illegal toll.” “Iran had promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, but deliberately failed to do so,” he justified.

“Any Iranian who shoots at us or peaceful ships will be obliterated,” threatened the leader in two lengthy messages, implying that “other countries” would be involved in the blockade effort, without naming them. On Fox News shortly afterward, he assured that the United Kingdom “and a few other countries” would send mine-clearing ships to the strait. However, London has not announced any deployment of warships in the region.

Nevertheless, his decision to impose a naval blockade and sanction companies accepting to pay a toll “will only stop a very small number of ships. On a global scale, this changes nothing,” stated BBC’s Lars Jensen, an expert in international maritime transport. “Very few ships pass. Even fewer pay, and those that do are already subject to American sanctions,” he added. Ultimately, “it’s all about trust” for shipowners. However, in their eyes, given the unclear situation, it seems more urgent to wait.