Washington (awp/afp) – Inflation surged last month in the United States, to 3.3% year-on-year, according to official data released on Friday. This jump reflects the spike in prices at the pump following the Middle East war.
In comparison, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in February. Between February and March, pump prices soared by 21.2%. Such a monthly increase had not been observed since the creation of a gas index in 1967, as highlighted by the US statistical service BLS.
However, even excluding the volatile prices of energy and food, inflation increased (+2.6% vs. +2.5% the previous month). Market expectations were in line with these figures, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.
The Middle East war was triggered on February 28 by Israeli-American bombings on Iran. Tehran retaliated by blocking maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically pass. Despite being the world’s top oil producer, the United States was not immune to the surge in prices.
Pump prices quickly rose. A gallon (3.78 liters) of regular gasoline currently averages $4.15 in the United States, compared to about $3 just before the war. The US administration, elected in part on the promise to strengthen purchasing power, assures that the economic disruptions domestically will be temporary.
“Just the Beginning”
“The Iran war has clear economic repercussions that weigh heavily on middle and lower-income households,” commented economist Heather Long from Navy Federal Credit Union on Friday. “The rise in gas, diesel, and airplane ticket prices is already being felt and is challenging American households,” she continued.
“And this is just the beginning,” predicted Ms. Long, who expects food and transportation costs to rise in April. When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, inflation continued the deceleration that began under Joe Biden, compared to the peak in spring 2022 (the war in Ukraine, which began a few months later, had driven pump prices even higher than today).
The CPI index only rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April 2025, corresponding to the announcement by the US president of a significant increase in tariffs on imported products. Inflation then started trending in the wrong direction, with Washington refusing to see it as a consequence of these tariffs.
Price increases had slowed again at the end of last year, largely due to gasoline prices being mild. During the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting in mid-March, its president Jerome Powell explained that the war could delay the moment when inflation would be contained in the United States.
The US central bank aims for a limited price increase of 2%, a target it has not reached in five years due to a series of shocks (Covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, tariffs).
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