The strongest monthly increase in gasoline prices in sixty years last month triggered a significant acceleration in inflation in the United States, posing major challenges to Federal Reserve officials and exacerbating considerable political obstacles facing the White House. Consumer prices rose by 3.3% in March compared to the previous year, the Labor Department announced on Friday, a sharp acceleration from the 2.4% level recorded in February and the largest annual increase since May 2024. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.9% in March compared to February, representing the largest increase of this kind in over four years.
This is the first measure of inflation to reflect the effects of the war in Iran. So far, economists believe it is unlikely that the United States will experience a generalized increase similar to that of a few years ago when inflation exceeded 9%.
The evolution of the war and its impact on inflation in the coming months remain highly uncertain. Despite a fragile ceasefire, little has changed in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which millions of barrels of oil usually pass each day.
“It’s painful in the short term,” said Michael Pearce, chief economist for the United States at Oxford Economics. “It will become even more painful in April,” when new gasoline price increases will push up inflation.
However, Mr. Pearce indicated that the impact could be shorter lived than after the pandemic: “I think the situation is more like a brief, sharp shock than what we experienced in 2022.”
Sectors dependent on oil and gas are paying more, especially airlines, which have passed on these higher costs to travelers. Rates rose by 2.7% just last month and are 14.9% higher than a year ago. Many delivery services, including UPS and FedEx, have already announced fuel surcharges that have pushed up shipping costs for businesses and households.
Food prices fell by 0.2% last month and only increased by 1.9% compared to the previous year, but economists expect them to rise in the coming months as diesel prices climb. Most food items are transported by truck.
The rise in fuel prices “contributes to the increase in production costs throughout the food supply chain and could exert upward pressure on food prices in the future,” said Andy Harig, vice president of the professional group FMI-The Food Industry Association. “As energy prices rise, production and delivery costs for food items also increase.”
Christopher Rugaber, The Associated Press
/2026/04/10/69d91e09719d4658291006.jpg "Negotiations between Washington and Tehran: The United States under pressure from inflation caused by the war")
