The new regime of the Guardians: how the Iranian state strengthened its hold in the war

In the last forty days, we have been closely following a war that has reshaped our way of life. If you are reading this and find our work relevant, and wish to support an independent European editorial team, discover all our offers to subscribe to “Le Grand Continent”.

The war has been presented by Donald Trump as a regime change war. Despite the assassination of several Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Republic still stands. Has the Iranian regime emerged stronger from these forty days of war?

Despite the loss of key leaders, the regime has demonstrated resilience against two of the world’s most powerful armies, the US and Israeli military forces. The regime has not only survived but also strengthened by showcasing meticulous planning with backup decision makers in place for each key position.

The replacement of political figures like Ali Larijani by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr has further solidified the authority and control of the most hardline elements within the Revolutionary Guards. The society is now entirely under the control of the Revolutionary Guards.

The war has reinforced the military power, weakened civil society, and worsened the economic hardship in Iran. The leadership of the country now lies with figures like Mohammed Qalibaf, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, and Ahmad Vahidi, who represent the true leaders of the nation.

The opposition to the regime has also been weakened, with the focus shifting towards rebuilding the country, rehousing displaced individuals, and creating jobs for the unemployed.

As a result of the war, social issues have exacerbated dramatically, with massive material destruction and displacement of millions of people. The regime will now have to rely on civil society and businesses to rebuild the country.

Despite facing challenges, the opposition in Iran remains fragmented and lacks a coherent structure. The war has shifted priorities away from political dissent towards addressing societal needs.

While protests may occur, they are more likely expressions of social distress rather than a significant political revolution against the regime.

The future of Iran post-ceasefire remains uncertain, with potential challenges in maintaining a sustainable peace and addressing the economic and social fallout from the conflict.

The war has morphed Iran into a militaristic regime, where the Revolutionary Guards play a predominant role, overshadowing traditional power structures.

It is important to consider the complex dynamics within Iran, including the potential impact of separatist movements, the role of ethnic minorities, and the evolving relationship between the state and civil society.