An Open War with Russia, Foremost Concern of the Highest French Ranking Officer

The possibility of an “open war” with Russia remains “my primary concern,” declared French Chief of Staff of the Army General Fabien Mandon on Thursday, who had previously warned of the risk of a “shock in three, four years.”

“The ongoing Russian threat on our continent, with an open war (…) remains my primary concern in terms of military preparedness,” General Mandon stated to members of the Defense Committee during a hearing on updating military programming to strengthen the defense budget by 2030.

“Each country has the freedom to evolve, but in any case, the projections we have today (…) indicate that Russia, in 2025, will have 1.3 million soldiers, with a projection of 1.9 million by 2030,” he recalled.

The number of Russian heavy tanks is expected to increase from 4,000 in 2025 to 7,000 in 2030, while the number of combat ships in the Russian navy “is expected to remain between 230 and 240,” he said.

“This is not a dogmatic issue; it is based on intelligence,” he emphasized, justifying the need to strengthen French defense capabilities.

The Kremlin, on the other hand, dismissed these concerns as “completely unfounded.” “Russia does not pose a threat to any country (…) that does not in any way intend to compromise the security of the Russian Federation,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in response to an AFP question on Thursday.

According to the French Chief of Staff of the Army, “this military programming law (LPM) is crucial for the defense of our citizens, the defense of our country, the defense of our interests.”

“We are in a period of danger. We should not cause alarm, but rather raise awareness because we need this defense investment,” General Mandon pleaded.

The bill updating the LPM presented on Wednesday at the Council of Ministers provides for an additional 36 billion euros for the Armed Forces, in addition to the 413 billion euros allocated for the 2024-2030 period.

The “use of force inhibition” and the “persistent terrorist threat in the Middle East, Asia, and also in Africa” also justify, according to him, the effort required of the French for their defense.

Moreover, “we can no longer have the same level of confidence in American commitment to our security,” even though “dialogue with American military authorities” remains “of high quality,” he added.

Faced with the “simultaneity of crises,” the priorities of the United States are “not the same as those of our country or our continent, and they have been warning us for months, telling us +reinforce yourselves, we may not be able to meet your needs when you need us+,” he reminded.