Since the beginning of the war at the end of February, the American and Israeli armed forces have inflicted heavy losses on the Iranian regime. But the Islamic Republic still shows a certain confidence, especially after the ceasefire agreement reached on Tuesday evening.
The tone is triumphant. Iran, through its Supreme Security Council, claimed on Wednesday, April 8, “a great victory” after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. While the Iranian regime has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a halt to American strikes, it projects a certain form of assurance, with negotiations scheduled to take place in the coming days for a peace agreement. The ceasefire does not mean “the end of the war,” cautioned the regime, warning that “Iran will only accept the cessation of hostilities” when negotiations for a long-term agreement have concluded.
Despite relentless Israeli and American bombings since the start of the war on February 28, Iran has endured numerous strikes. The United States has “completely destroyed” Iran’s defense industrial base, stated American Defense Minister Pete Hegseth on Wednesday. “We have attacked, with our partners, about 90% of their arms factories,” including “all Shahed explosive drone production plants,” said US Chief of Staff Dan Caine. Regarding naval matters, “it will take years for Iran to rebuild surface combat vessels,” according to the general. “Iran’s military power is proven,” summarized Thierry Coville, a researcher at Iris and an Iran specialist.
The Israeli-American campaign has also destroyed numerous civilian infrastructures such as bridges, power plants, universities, and several health facilities. Nearly 2,000 Iranians have died during the conflict, and over 25,000 others have been injured, as reported by the World Health Organization in a situation report published on April 2. “The country’s population is in distress, and the socio-economic consequences of the war are very significant,” warned Sylvain Gaillaud, a researcher in contemporary history at the University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.
At this stage, no one dares to consider a new popular uprising against the regime, particularly as past precedents have been brutally suppressed. Especially since leaders have recently “portrayed a form of national unity” by calling on the population to form “human chains” to protect civilian infrastructures. “The extent of the destruction may have made part of the population realize that it was not the Islamic Republic being attacked, but Iran itself,” analyzed Sylvain Gaillaud.
However, the heads of the Islamic regime have been decimated. Several leaders, including its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, several generals, and ministers, have been killed in airstrikes. But the mullahs, in power since 1979, have not collapsed, contrary to American expectations. The Supreme Leader has been replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not yet appeared in public.
“Assassinating its leaders to change the regime’s decision-making system is a misconception of the Islamic Republic of Iran, where the decision-making system is based on consensus,” decrypted Thierry Coville.
Despite the “systematic decapitation of the military and political apparatus,” Iran has shown “resilience and lasting resistance,” Sylvain Gaillaud further added. The Revolutionary Guards Corps, the regime’s armed branch with its 190,000 fighters, has expanded its influence in the country, “thanks to a decentralized organization and less government orders,” noted the specialist.
The growing influence of this organization, designated as a terrorist group by the European Union in late January after the bloody repression during the January protests, “is not good news” for the Trump administration, warned Sylvain Gaillaud. “Their purpose is to export the Islamic revolution to other countries. The United States is seen as an existential threat. They also push for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons,” added the specialist. With their finger on the trigger, the Revolutionary Guards are ready to retaliate “if the enemy repeats its miscalculations,” they warned on their Telegram channel on Wednesday.
Despite a significantly lower firepower compared to American and Israeli allies, Iran has also demonstrated significant disruptive capabilities in the region, targeting its Gulf neighbors and blocking any passage in the crucial Strait of Hormuz for hydrocarbon transportation. “Donald Trump did not expect such resistance,” emphasized Thierry Coville. “For Iran, winning this war meant not losing it. For the United States, it was the opposite,” concluded Sylvain Gaillaud.
The Iranian regime is thus confident about the upcoming negotiations. Talks will begin from Friday in Pakistan, being the mediator of this war, and in the presence of US Vice President J.D. Vance on Saturday. Donald Trump stated that Tehran has submitted “a ten-point proposal” which “provides a viable basis for negotiation.”
A version of the plan, circulated by the Iranian press, calls for the lifting of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. One of the points also requires Washington to accept uranium enrichment. In June 2025, the United States struck three nuclear sites in the country with powerful bunker-busting bombs. Donald Trump had then declared it a “spectacular military success.” However, the exact extent of damage to over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium remains unknown.
“The fact that the issue is up for discussion is a huge failure for the American president, who, after two wars, finds himself negotiating the initial subject,” highlighted Thierry Coville. These negotiations could once again stumble. “The Iranian agenda is disproportional compared to what the United States can accept,” pointed out Sylvain Gaillaud. Especially since the issue of managing the passage of Hormuz remains highly contentious.
