Military programming law: We are not ready for mass combat with many deaths

In fact, if this additional envelope is voted for, between its entry in the Elysée in 2017 and its departure in 2027, defense credits will have doubled during this decade. However, if this catch-up, after years of budget restrictions, has been welcomed, questions remain. Particularly on one point: that of the mass of the armies. And the draft bill, obtained by “Sud Ouest”, is clear: this increase in credits will be done “without initiating any evolution in size”.

Rafale, Leclerc tanks

Thus, the Rafale fleet will be blocked at 225 aircraft – 185 for the air force, 40 for the navy – the first rank frigates fleet at 15, and the Leclerc tank fleet at 200. However, these means will be modernized.

“Since 2017, the defense budget is increasing, that is undeniable, but it does not translate into capacity.”

In other words, if this update of the military programming law provides for numerous investments, it would not meet the need for massing of the armies. A need that has become apparent with the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the beginning of the American-Israeli offensive against Iran; two wars, which in addition to human losses, are also marked by a very high consumption of missiles and drones and pressure on the armament industries.

Shock in 3-4 years?

While the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Fabien Mandon, continues to warn of the need to prepare for “a shock in 3-4 years”, especially with Russia, this bill project raises questions. “I do not see this text as a response to the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces,” responds General Jean-Marc Laurent, the holder of the defense and aerospace chair at the University of Bordeaux. “Since 2017, the defense budget is increasing, that is undeniable, but it does not translate into capacity. We have fewer soldiers than in 2017 and less equipment, except in a few sectors.”

“In addition to nuclear deterrence, what we know how to do, are niche actions like being the first to enter a theater of operations.”

For General Laurent, despite this new increase in credits, France is “not ready for a high-intensity war in the long term.” “Giving our number of planes does not mean much,” he emphasizes. “Not all our Rafale are combat-ready due to lack of equipment. Additionally, the more a Rafale flies, the more maintenance it requires. Finally, our Rafale are aging, the first ones are 20 years old. We are far below the 225 available Rafale.”

Smart munitions

In the absence of increasing the size of the armies, many investments will accompany this budgetary revaluation. This will notably focus on munitions. According to documents we have seen, the number of smart munitions or precision-guided munitions of short, medium, and long-range is expected to increase by +400% by 2030. The number of guided bombs by +240%, SCALP missiles for deep strikes by +85%, and 155mm shells by +190%. “The efforts made will allow for better complementarity between precision munitions and saturation munitions,” specifies the text.

Regarding air defense, the SAMP-T fleet will reach ten units by 2030, which is two more than initially planned. Also in terms of acquisitions: in 2030, the new reconnaissance aircraft, the Global Eye, will enter service, as well as the three Archange aircraft specialized in electronic warfare. As for the army, the number of Caesar cannons will increase: by 2030, the artillery should have 120 units, eleven more than originally planned.