President Trump said this week to “absolutely” consider withdrawing the United States from NATO, a threat made after complaining about the lack of assistance from allies to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Is the Atlantic Alliance on the verge of disintegration?
The essence of NATO is to embody solidarity among allies. With Donald Trump, this spirit is once again violently challenged. However, does this have an impact on the structures of the Alliance whose supreme command is ensured by American general Alexus Grynkewich? Not really, assures Elie Tenenbaum, a research director at Ifri. “On a daily basis, if you talk to people who are part of the NATO structure, nothing has changed compared to two months ago, nor compared to two years ago. In fact, there have been no specific American measures, except for a slight reduction in American contributions to the headquarters and in some integrated command organs. But we are extremely far from the messages that can be conveyed at the highest political level.”
Deep concern in Europe
Europeans’ concern is nevertheless well-founded. What will happen to NATO’s defense plans without the Americans? “You have defense plans that have been completely revised after the adoption of a new strategic concept in 2022,” says Elie Tenenbaum, “these plans are articulated around three regional plans and seven subordinate strategic plans that are structured in the face of a now identified threat which is Russia, which are supposed to be mutualizable and executable. However, we know that their execution in the best possible way is still very difficult to implement. First, because capacity targets have not been met, and then, there is obviously the question of a significant contribution from the United States to the defense plan, historically around 50% of capacities. Today, we are at 42% with the Americans aiming to continue reducing their share, in the name of what they call burden-sharing.”
Can the United States quickly leave the Atlantic Alliance as the Trump administration suggests?
NATO, a paper tiger according to Donald Trump
And the underlying question is, if they leave NATO, will they also leave Europe where over 60,000 soldiers are still stationed? Such a decision will not be so easily taken, according to Elie Tenenebaum: “The perspective of a full American withdrawal, in terms of denunciation of the treaty, firstly legally, is far from obvious, as a law was signed in 2023, preventing the President of the United States from deciding alone, without agreement, a two-thirds majority vote in Congress to proceed with such a withdrawal. Secondly, because, ultimately, we can see an interest from the United States to stay in the structure, even if it empties it of meaning by questioning Article 5 through public declarations, but still continue to be on the inside. A formal withdrawal does not seem to be on the agenda today.”
NATO, a paper tiger, a phrase President Trump is fond of, may seriously damage the credibility of the Atlantic Alliance and its ability to deter its adversaries.
[Context: President Trump’s consideration of withdrawing the US from NATO has raised concerns about the future of the Atlantic Alliance.] [Fact Check: The US law signed in 2023 prevents the President from unilaterally deciding to withdraw from NATO without a two-thirds majority vote in Congress.]
