The bill to update the Military Programming Law will be presented on Wednesday in the Council of Ministers. The size of the armed forces remains unchanged.
As always… Too little or not enough. This is the paradox of updating the Military Programming Law (an additional 36 billion euros), the bill of which was unveiled this week by Politico and will be presented on Wednesday in the Council of Ministers. It’s a lot of additional money but unfortunately still remains insufficient given the current geopolitical challenges. An increase in credits requested by Emmanuel Macron despite the catastrophic public finance situation. Despite the continuous increase in defense budgets desired and respected by Emmanuel Macron since 2018, France still faces many difficulties in rearming its armed forces to the appropriate level, which were severely rationed between 1997 and 2017.
Still and always arbitrages
This update is clearly just a recapitalization of the 2024-2030 LPM, which couldn’t fulfill all the capacity objectives of the armed forces based on the budget constraints. It’s worth remembering that as early as 2022, the armed forces were already asking for a budget of 430 billion euros during the preparation of the LPM to meet all their capacity needs, while Bercy, being more austere, advocated for 377 billion. Emmanuel Macron then decided (400 billion in budget credits plus 13 billion in extra-budgetary revenues).
With this update, the defense budget is expected to rise to 436 billion euros (excluding extra-budgetary revenues). This envelope, as significant as it is, has required some arbitrages. These have been very unfavorable to the space sector, among others, and unfavorable to the army, which is experiencing losses in armored vehicles (-50 Serval and -180 VBAE by 2030).
Unchanged formats
Upon arriving at the Élysée in 2017, the defense budget was 32 billion euros. This year, if fully executed, it should reach 57.1 billion euros, then 63.3 billion in 2027, the year of Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Élysée (76.3 billion in 2030, unless the next president wishes otherwise). Despite all these investments, the formats of the armed forces, set by the 2013 White Paper, remain unchanged. It was a different world back then, one of happy globalization and a certain denial despite the crises and tensions that were beginning to emerge worldwide, and the rise of increasingly uninhibited powerful states.
According to the bill, the air force and the navy will continue to intensively fly their combat aircraft, which are currently at 225 Rafales (185 for the air force and 40 for the Navy); the navy will increase its missions with only 15 first-class frigates (8 FREMM, 5 FDI, and 2 Horizon), six nuclear attack submarines (SNA), and three helicopter carriers. Meanwhile, the army will have to make do with 200 renovated Leclerc tanks (by 2035), 67 Tiger attack helicopters, including 14 modernized ones… Despite its technical capabilities and expertise, the French military remains a paper tiger in high-intensity conflicts, consuming a lot of equipment (attrition).
36 billion more: to do what?
According to the bill, updating the LPM will allow for the acceleration of the modernization movement of our capabilities and the readiness of our capacity model for high-intensity engagements by our armed forces. In terms of budget, these “overruns” will achieve a defense effort of 2.5% of GDP by 2030. With this additional armament effort, the defense budget will have doubled between 2017 and 2027, rising from 32 billion to nearly 64 billion.
Out of the 36 billion, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu intends to invest an additional 8.5 billion euros between 2026 and 2030 in orders for various types of ammunition: from precision munitions to cruise missiles, Exocets, 155mm shells, and anti-tank missiles. Between 2024 and 2030, the stocks of various munitions will significantly increase: +400% for precision munitions, +240% for AASM guided bombs (Safran), +230% for MU90 torpedoes (Naval Group and Leonardo) and F21 (Naval Group), +190% for 155mm shells (KNDS France), +100% for Exocet sea-to-sea missiles (MBDA), +85% for Scalp and MdCN missiles (MBDA). The increase in munitions deliveries will continue from 2031 to 2035.
Among the new expenses, the air force will receive a fleet of six additional A400M tactical transport aircraft and two additional renovated Mirage 2000D aircraft (50 in total). The delivery of the next-generation SAMP/T NG air defense systems (MBDA/Thales) will be accelerated before 2030 (ten systems instead of eight by 2030), as well as the first Global Eye, the new surveillance and airborne control aircraft (Saab), which will be in service before 2030. Additionally, France is withdrawing from the Franco-German Eurodrone (MALE drone) program. “The military need for the MALE capacity has been redirected to seize the opportunity related to the emergence of a lower-cost sovereign MALE drone industry, as the EU MALE is now found to be less suitable for high-intensity operations,” the bill explains.
In the Navy, the ministry aims to accelerate the delivery of three additional Albatross aircraft by 2030, a surveillance and intervention aircraft (Dassault Aviation), while retiring three Falcon 50s (out of four). To defend its frigates, the Navy will equip them with 18 additional SIMBAD RC very short-range air defense systems (MBDA) by 2030, bringing the total to 26, along with ten additional anti-drone systems (at least 30 by 2030). The Navy will also significantly enhance its drone capabilities: surveillance (AUV) and intervention (ROV) in the seabed, hydro-oceanography, integration of naval and aerial drones into naval and land units for intelligence gathering and intervention (1 aerial drone system per frigate or BRF; surface drones on frigates; underwater drones; surface drones in the approaches).
Finally, the ministry will place several additional orders for the army to be delivered before 2030: 300 new-generation logistics trucks (for a total of 2400 trucks), 50 Proteus anti-aircraft cannons, AI boosts, 11 Caesar artillery guns (120 units total), and up to 13 unitary rocket launchers. “The acceleration of deliveries of Serval anti-drone systems, electronic warfare systems, and very short-range air defense, as well as the implementation of an interim anti-drone capability from the innovative Proteus project, will strengthen the protection of deployed forces. This effort was notably enabled by the adaptation, over the first two years of the LPM, of Serval infantry deliveries and the rescheduling of the VBAE, whose employment concept is being rethought in the context of increased drone missions,” explains the bill.
