Caught in the stranglehold between the imperialist aggression led by the United States and Israel and the repression of the Islamic Republic, the people of Iran are enduring a destructive war with major social consequences.
The imperialist war unleashed by Trump and Netanyahu against Iran has now entered its fifth week. According to Israeli and American military sources, over 30,000 bombs and missiles have already been dropped on Iran.
Civilian casualties continue to rise: schools, hospitals, universities, and residential areas have been targeted. Industrial infrastructure such as refineries, steelworks, and cement plants have also been hit, resulting in numerous deaths among the workers. The aim is to permanently weaken Iran’s productive capacities and transform it into a state incapable of regional influence, at the cost of lasting social collapse. This devastating imperialist intervention is being applauded by Iranian monarchists. The people of Iran who have been bombed will remember.
In addition to its ballistic response and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is intensifying internal repression: the regime is ramping up mass arrests, executions, and instilling a climate of terror in the country. In support of the regime’s repressive forces, in recent days the Iraqi militia Hachd al Chaabi has deployed men on Iranian territory. Some radical campist networks are aligning themselves with this bloody dictatorship, believing that legitimate resistance against the Israeli-American order in the region involves siding with the IRI. Instead of building solidarity among the region’s working class against reactionary, imperialist, and colonial domination, these campists are pitting people against each other and aligning with dictatorial regimes.
Despite contradictory statements from Trump and denials from Iranian leaders, both sides are now seeking to end the conflict, each wanting to claim their own version of “victory.”
Militarily, the United States and Israel have a clear advantage. They can boast of significant damage inflicted on Iran. The Iranian regime, on the other hand, will seek to present its survival as a victory, despite its internal crises. The economic reasons for ending the war for the United States include disruption of energy markets, economic pressures, and rising inflation. The financial cost of the war being waged would be staggering for the US, reaching $50 billion in five weeks. There is also growing domestic opposition to the war, with massive mobilizations in recent days around the “No Kings” movement and divisions within the Republican camp as elections approach.
The IRI is aware of its weaknesses: inability to sustain a prolonged war, lack of cohesion, and absence of massive popular support. The silence of the populace is more out of fear than endorsement. Diplomatically, countries like Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt have proposed mediations, with Pakistan playing a more active role recently.
In this scenario, a plan seems to be taking shape. The United States and Israel have spared Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament president, former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, responsible for the brutal repression of the 1999 student movement. Ghalibaf, a notorious corrupt figure and former mayor of Tehran, is the one Trump claims to be negotiating with. Ghalibaf will likely make significant concessions to maintain the regime. Meanwhile, Trump continues to deploy forces in the region, with threats of a ground incursion becoming more precise.
Regardless, the Iranian regime will emerge weakened from this war, both militarily and politically, in terms of legitimacy and social control.
Once the war ends, social movements will resurface. The society, ravaged by war, crisis, and dictatorship, will seek to express its grievances. These social movements will need to organize and connect with each other to pave the way for a grassroots popular alternative.
It is imperative to support the struggle of the Iranian people by demanding an end to this imperialist war!
Babak Kia
