Iran’s Position of Strength in Gulf | Trump’s Iran War Without Peace Treaty Threat
By Samia Nakhoul
– If Donald Trump ends the war in the Middle East without a peace deal with Tehran, as he has suggested, Iran could emerge stronger against Gulf countries impacted by a conflict they were dragged into involuntarily.
The U.S. president warned of sending Iran back to the Stone Age, hinting at new strikes in the coming weeks to achieve American military objectives against Iran. However, Tehran could gain strength from the conflict initiated on February 28 by resisting Israeli-American strikes, launching missiles at Gulf countries, and causing disruptions in global energy markets by closing the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Before his speech from Wednesday night to Thursday, Trump told Reuters that the U.S. could end its offensive fairly quickly without a peace agreement. However, a war resolution without clear guarantees for future events poses a significant danger to Gulf states.
“The issue is the end of conflict without a real solution,” said Mohammed Baharoon, Director of the Dubai B’huth research center. “Trump can stop his war, but it doesn’t mean Iran will do the same.”
As long as U.S. troops remain stationed in Gulf-protected bases, Iran will continue to threaten the region, according to Baharoon.
Iran could leverage the conflict to change the balance of power by disrupting maritime navigation, energy flows, and regional stability, leaving Gulf states to bear the economic and strategic consequences of an unresolved conflict.
The hindrance to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil and gas shipments, is a major concern, Baharoon noted.
Iran might manipulate territorial waters and dictate terms in the Strait of Hormuz, further complicating the situation.
The Iranian regime’s ability to disrupt energy supplies sends a clear message to potential attackers, emphasizing the need for caution and non-involvement in the conflict to avoid broader regional consequences.
Fundamental Error in Conflict Escalation
Tensions escalated on the basis of what political analysts describe as a fundamental misjudgment by the U.S. and Israel regarding Tehran’s response to unprecedented airstrikes on the Iranian theocratic regime. The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader was supposed to be a decisive blow but instead rallied support for resistance and revenge, portraying Khamenei as a martyr and solidifying the regime’s resolve.
The U.S. and Israel underestimated Iran’s resilience and retaliatory capabilities, expecting aerial dominance to weaken Tehran, when in fact, Iran’s strategic focus on energy and the Strait of Hormuz has magnified the conflict’s impact on global economies.
Premature war resolution without security guarantees will leave Gulf states vulnerable, as Iran retains international networks and capabilities to strike distant Israeli, American, and allied targets, extending the conflict implications beyond the region.
This threat looms over the U.S., and a potential American withdrawal would not be perceived as Iran’s defeat, but rather a reinforcement of its power balance in the perception of regional analysts.
(French version by Zhifan Liu, edited by Benoit Van Overstraeten)
