Customs duties, Greenland… Donald Trump has accustomed markets and the international community to abrupt turnarounds, with his about-face on Iran Monday being the most spectacular example to date.
Since returning to power, he openly admits that he governs by “instinct.”
On the Middle East conflict, the American president has made contradictory statements about goals and timelines, ultimately stating on March 13 that the war would end when he “feels it in his gut.”
“Donald Trump has mastered the art of turns and sudden changes. So, it’s hard to say whether there is a strategy or if it’s improvisation,” says Garret Martin, a professor at American University, to Agence France-Presse.
These turnarounds always follow the same pattern.
The Republican issues commercial, diplomatic, or military threats, often accompanied by ultimatums, that astound the world.
Then, he suddenly backtracks on his plans, claims to have secured crucial concessions that he rarely details, and promises a way out of the crisis, causing violent movements in the markets.
On Monday, oil prices plummeted dramatically after Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social network the holding of discussions on a cessation of conflict with Iranian officials.
Immediately after his message was posted, the price of Brent crude oil from the North Sea briefly dropped by more than 14%. Its American equivalent, West Texas Intermediate, lost nearly 10%. These are very significant amplitudes.
The change in tone could hardly be more abrupt.
Just on Saturday, he had given Iran “48 hours” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for oil trade, under the threat of massive strikes on the country’s power plants, without mentioning any dialogue.
On Monday, he gave a new deadline, this time five days, to allow dialogue to continue.
He mentioned “very productive” discussions with Iranian officials who are “very respectable” and “very robust,” without identifying them.
“My whole life has been a negotiation, but with Iran, we have been negotiating for a long time. And this time they are serious!” declared the American president in a speech in Memphis, emphasizing his businessman’s instinct rather than specific concessions from Tehran.
The pattern is so familiar that it now has an acronym, coined by Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong in May 2025: “TACO” for “Trump always chicken out.”
Iranian denial
The term originally referred to a stock strategy of profiting from the decline of assets or indices after a bombastic announcement by Donald Trump to buy in the hope of reselling at a good price after the American president changed his mind.
Commentators have, for example, used “TACO” when the president, who hates the expression, announced on April 2, 2025, heavy global customs duties, only to declare a 90-day pause later.
Or when he suddenly gave up on threats against Greenland or those directed at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
These turnarounds, while delighted the markets, often remain vague on the “agreements,” the “discussions,” or the “pauses” announced by Donald Trump.
On Monday, Iranian leaders denied holding negotiations, partially dampening the enthusiasm observed in the stock markets.
The United States’ partners or adversaries now know “that there is always something precarious with this administration, promises are only valid the second they are made,” notes Garret Martin.
The international relations expert believes that, concerning Iran, Donald Trump has backtracked due to three factors: market nervousness, possible pressure from Gulf countries, and the emergence of “tensions” within his political movement “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) due to the cost of the conflict.
