During his recent State of the Union address, Donald Trump claimed, in a questionable dance of numbers, that his administration had imported 80 million barrels of oil from Venezuela since authorizing five companies – four European and one American – to resume their activities in the country.
However, these figures are misleading. Firstly, they contradict economic analysts’ estimates from sources such as Teekay Tankers, a Canadian maritime company specializing in crude oil transportation quoted by Standard & Poor’s. Their experts estimate a total export volume of crude oil from Venezuela to the United States at between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels per day. These numbers provided by Trump during his speech (600,000) are even more conservative.
These forecasts align with data from Reuters gathered from the Venezuelan national oil company (PDVSA) and economic analysts like LSEG, estimating that crude oil production increased from 2023 to 2025 to between 600,000 and one million barrels per day, with an average of 800,000 during the past year.
Considering that Trump lifted sanctions against Venezuela on the afternoon of February 13, this would allow for a maximum margin of 8,800,000 exported barrels, nearly 10 times less than what the president claims, without taking into account other companies vying for a share. Repsol, in its last week’s annual results report, announced plans to triple production numbers in the Orinoco Belt but did not specify if they were already operating in the country or what volume they were aiming for.
The estimates provided by the president himself on January 7, four days after the capture and forced extradition of Nicolas Maduro by a group of American paramilitaries, oscillated between 30 and 50 million exported barrels, but Trump never specified the period he was referring to.
Apart from Repsol, the United States also authorized the British Shell and BP, Italian Eni, and American Chevron to operate in Venezuela. The Republican government also issued another license allowing companies worldwide to sign contracts for new investments in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector.
This measure was adopted after U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, met with Chevron representatives and Chavista political leaders, including interim President Delcy Rodríguez, in Venezuela.
