The American economy is more fragile than we thought: an economist close to Donald Trump puts…

The economist E.J Antoni, once chosen by Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, warns that the surge in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict will impact “prices across the entire American economy.”

A new alert for Donald Trump just months before the midterm elections. As economists’ forecasts have darkened since the beginning of the war in Iran – some predicting stagflation in the US, others a recession – it is now a close ally of the American president who cautions about the conflict’s impact on businesses and consumers in the US.

“I don’t think our economy can handle a $100 per barrel oil price, it’s simply impossible,” said E.J. Antoni in the Financial Times.

This conservative economist was initially nominated by Donald Trump himself to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics. He was supposed to succeed Erika McEntarfer, who was dismissed in mid-2025 by the president for allegedly publishing fake numbers. The appointment of E.J. Antoni was eventually cancelled, with the White House opting for its economic adviser Brett Matsumoto instead.

Since the start of the Middle East conflict, oil prices have skyrocketed. This Thursday, the Brent barrel price jumped by over 10%, reaching $118. Meanwhile, the WTI barrel, the reference on the American market, was trading at over $98, up from less than $70 before the initial strikes on Iran.

This surge in energy prices has consequences for the American economy as it will “put upward pressure on prices across the entire American economy,” warns E.J. Antoni. Gas prices have already risen in the US, reaching $3.84 per gallon, up from $3.92 a month ago, while diesel has crossed the $5 mark.

And American motorists are feeling it. This is worrying for Republican lawmakers as the midterm elections approach in November. Especially knowing that the US economy, even before the war, was “more fragile than we thought, and inflation is worse than expected,” as E.J. Antoni points out.

The US GDP growth in the last quarter of 2025 was significantly revised downward to 0.7% on an annualized basis. The American economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, while economists were expecting a net gain of 59,000 jobs.

This slowdown in the American economy is expected to worsen with the consequences of the Middle East conflict. Several economists, like Joseph Stiglitz, have warned of the risk of stagflation (low growth, high inflation). On Wednesday, Moody’s even suggested that a recession within the next twelve months was becoming the most likely scenario.