The first negotiations between the United States and Iran fail, is the ceasefire threatened?

In negotiations in Pakistan, American and Iranian delegations failed to reach an agreement. As doubts linger about the extension of the ceasefire, Donald Trump has decided to implement a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, breaking international maritime law.

Observers of the conflict between the United States and Iran are unsure how to interpret recent events. While a real breakthrough seemed possible on Saturday, April 11, with the inspection of the Strait of Hormuz by two American destroyers – said to have been placed with a dozen mines by the Iranians -, the diplomatic negotiations in Pakistan between the two parties ultimately did not succeed. They ended in total ambiguity.

Furthermore, as the ceasefire – meant to last two weeks – is threatened, Donald Trump ordered an American naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on the afternoon of Sunday, April 12, in response to Iran’s “intransigent” refusal to give up its nuclear ambitions during peace talks in Islamabad. The decision raises a highly sensitive legal issue: since the center of the Strait of Hormuz is in international waters, the American navy cannot block a ship without violating international maritime law. This blockade effectively internationalizes the conflict, as many ships heading to powers like China or India, which have so far stayed out of the Middle East war, are affected.

Strategic Passage of Hormuz:

During the night of Saturday, April 11, to Sunday, April 12, American Vice President JD Vance returned to his country after what he deemed to be a “final and best possible offer” to Iran. According to him, Washington blames Tehran for not making a “firm promise” to abandon its nuclear weapons program – a demand from Donald Trump that triggered the conflict forty days earlier.

Iran also confirmed the end of the discussions, attributing their failure to the “unreasonable, excessive, and illegal demands” of the United States, according to the Iranian state television. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, mentioned “the complexity of the issues and conditions surrounding the negotiations.” He explained that new topics were added during this negotiation cycle, including the issue of the Strait of Hormuz and regional files, each with its own specific conditions and considerations.

The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage for global oil supply from the Gulf, has effectively been blocked by Iran since the beginning of the conflict, with cascading consequences on the world economy, leading to shortages and price hikes.

A Foreseeable Failure?

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has not put Iran in good standing either. Last Wednesday, Israel carried out the deadliest strikes of this war, resulting in at least 357 deaths in one day, according to the latest count. Talks are supposed to take place on Tuesday between Lebanon and Israel in Washington, rejected by Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed a desire for a peace agreement on Saturday, April 11, that will “hold up for generations.”

And now? Before boarding his plane, JD Vance indicated giving Iranians time to consider his “final offer.” However, it is unlikely that the proposal will be accepted in its current state, especially in light of the naval blockade decision made by the president a few hours later. Without delving into the substance, Esmaeil Baqaei described an atmosphere of suspicion and mistrust unsuitable for reaching an agreement.

It is possible that the United States never intended to reach an agreement: while JD Vance was still at the negotiation table on Saturday, April 11, Donald Trump stated that “it doesn’t matter to him” whether an agreement is reached or not.

The ceasefire, theoretically set to last two more weeks, is now at risk. As a mediator, Pakistan quickly called for the maintenance of the ceasefire for the planned period, in the hope of a second round of negotiations.

However, on Sunday, April 12, the Revolutionary Guards – the ideological army of the Islamic Republic of Iran – warned that they would target any foreign military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. With Donald Trump’s announcement in the afternoon, everything is in place for a restart of the conflict, with the maritime passage crystallizing all tensions.