United States: inflation jumps to +3.3% on year due to war fallout

( AFP / RONALDO SCHEMIDT )

Inflation surged last month in the United States, reaching 3.3% on an annual basis, reflecting a spike in prices at the pump due to the Middle East conflict, according to official data released on Friday.

By comparison, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in February.

Between February and March, gas prices jumped by 21.2%. Such a monthly increase had not been seen since the creation of a gasoline index in 1967, as highlighted by the US statistical service BLS.

However, even when excluding volatile energy and food prices, inflation still increased (+2.6% compared to +2.5% a month earlier).

Market analysts were expecting such numbers, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.

The Middle East conflict was triggered on February 28 by Israeli-American airstrikes on Iran. Tehran retaliated by blocking maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas normally pass.

Despite being the world’s largest oil producer, the United States was not immune to the spike in prices.

Gas prices quickly rose. A gallon (3.78 liters) of regular gasoline currently costs an average of $4.15 in the US, compared to around $3 just before the war.

The US government, elected in part on the promise to boost purchasing power, assures that the economic disruptions on domestic soil will be temporary.

– “Just the Beginning” –

“The war in Iran has obvious economic repercussions that weigh heavily on middle and low-income households,” commented economist Heather Long of Navy Federal Credit Union on Friday.

“The increase in gasoline, diesel, and airline ticket prices is already being felt and is putting American households to the test,” she added.

“And this is just the beginning,” predicted Ms. Long, who expects to see food and transportation costs rise in April.

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, inflation continued the decline that began under Joe Biden, compared to the peak reached in spring 2022 (the war in Ukraine, started a few months earlier, had driven gas prices even higher than today).

The CPI index was only up 2.3% year-on-year in April 2025, corresponding to the period when the US president announced a significant increase in tariffs on imported goods.

Inflation then started heading in the wrong direction, with Washington refusing to see it as a consequence of these tariffs.

Price increases had slowed down again at the end of last year, largely due to gasoline prices remaining mild.

During the latest Federal Reserve meeting in mid-March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that the war could delay the moment when inflation would be contained in the United States.

The US central bank aims for a limited price increase of 2%, a goal it has not met for five years due to a series of shocks (Covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, tariffs).