The eighth edition of the regional survey conducted by the Singaporean institute ISEAS-Yusof Ishak and published on Tuesday, April 7, revealed that the first year of Donald Trump’s second term as president has led to a growing distrust of the United States in ASEAN countries. While in 2019, a minority (47.7%) of Southeast Asians stated a preference for Beijing over Washington, if they had to choose a side, this year the trend reversed.
More than half of ASEAN residents (52%) now prefer to align with China, compared to 48% for the United States.
– Nearly a third of respondents (29.5%) expect relations between their country and the United States to deteriorate this year, double the percentage from the previous year (14.2%). – Conversely, a majority of respondents (56%) believe that their country’s relations with China will improve over the next three years, compared to 33% for the United States. – The tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration, which have particularly affected Southeast Asian countries where the textile industry and exports of finished products play a key role in the economy, are seen as actions that could further damage the image of the United States in the region. – Despite still being perceived as the country best able to uphold respect for international law, the gap with the European Union has greatly narrowed this year.
Now ranking second, ahead of China, the European Union could soon become the most trusted actor by ASEAN countries to ensure respect for the international order based on rules.
The policy of the Trump administration is cited as the primary concern of ASEAN countries (51.9%), followed by global fraudulent activities (51.4%) and Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea (48.2%).
In addition to the impact of tariffs, the war launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel against Iran is mainly affecting Asia: Cambodia has limited the use of air conditioning to conserve energy, Indonesia has implemented a mandatory weekly workday for civil servants, and the Philippines have declared a national energy emergency, urging public agencies to reduce fuel consumption.
Similar to Europe, where our January Eurobazooka survey showed that Trump’s presidency was driving closer ties between the EU and China, a similar trend is observed in Southeast Asia. Aggressive behaviors of the Chinese navy in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are now taking a back seat.
